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Alright, let’s just give it 

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another 1015 seconds and then 

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we will get started. 

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Alright, welcome to the Quincy 

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Institute’s panel discussion 

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titled The Human Rights Impact 

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of Broad-based Economic 

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Sanctions time to rethink our 

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approach My name is Trina 

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Parsley. I’m the executive vice 

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president of the Quincy 

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Institute at think tank in 

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Washington that promotes ideas 

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that move US foreign policy 

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away from endless war and 

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toward rigorous diplomacy We 

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favor a US national security 

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strategy that is centered on 

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diplomacy and military 

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restraint over the. Three 

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decades we have seen an 

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explosion in the United States 

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is use of broad-based Economic 

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Sanctions policy makers on both 

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sides of the Isle Sanctions as 

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an attractive low-cost foreign 

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policy tool that has almost no 

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domestic political consequences 

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for them. sanctions are also 

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often seen as an alternative to 

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war and justified on human 

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rights grounds yet the economic 

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pain inflicted on the target 

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country is supposed to compel 

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it to seize its human rights 

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abuses often. But our broad 

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Based Economic Sanctions 

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themselves and instruments that 

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violates human rights by 

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increasing the suffering of the 

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civilian population growing 

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evidence shows that broad broad 

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Based Sanctions have disastrous 

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human rights impacts on the 

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ground, causing starvation 

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shortages it in critical 

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medicines, electricity and even 

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clean water, which leads to the 

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question, is it time to rethink 

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our usage of broad Based 

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Economic Sanctions? precisely 

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because of the Disastrous 

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impact it has on civilian 

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populations to address these 

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important questions. We have an 

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excellent panel, which will be 

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prominent experts in this 

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field, but before I introduce 

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our panelist, let me just 

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remind you that you can ask 

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your questions to the panelist 

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by putting them into the Q and 

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a function in the zoom and if 

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you’re watching this on 

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YouTube, you can also put it 

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into that comment section and 

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we’ll try to get to to those 

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questions as well. Same true if 

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you’re watching this on 

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Facebook. Now, with no further 

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ado, let’s get started, we have 

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three excellent panelists. 

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First off is a Bali who is a 

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non resident fellow at the 

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Quincy Institute and Professor 

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of law at the UCLA School of 

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Law, where she served as the 

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founding faculty director of 

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the Promise Institute for Human 

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Rights. She’s currently served 

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as a co chair of the advisory 

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board for the Middle East 

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Division of Human Rights Watch 

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and as the Chair of the Task 

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Force on civil and Human rights 

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for the Middle East Studies 

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Association. Has written 

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extensively on these topics and 

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we will address some of those 

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writings in our conversations. 

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Okay, Then we have Peter Bono, 

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who is a professor of 

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journalism and political 

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science at the Newark Newark 

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School of Journalism at the 

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City University of New York. 

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He’s also the editor at large 

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of Jewish parents and non 

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resident fellow at the 

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foundation for Middle East 

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Peace and at CNN political 

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commentator he has written 

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extensively on this issue and I 

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would bring particular 

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attention to to his recent New 

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York Times op ed on. US 

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sanctions entitled America’s 

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other Forever war, and if you 

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haven’t already, please make 

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sure that you subscribe to the 

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by a notebook on substance to 

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it in the chat, It’s an exit 

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newsletter. You will not regret 

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it and finally we have Josh 

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Landis, who’s an all resident 

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fellow at the Quincy Institute 

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and Sandra Mackey, chair and 

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professor of Middle East 

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Studies at the University of 

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California he writes and 

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manages the Syria Com.com a 

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daily newsletter on Syrian 

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politics that attracts some 50 

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thousand page reads a month he 

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is. Of America’s foremost 

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experts on Syria so let me get 

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straight to the very part of 

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the top as in Boston review, 

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you wrote together with your 

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core that sanctions whatever 

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the conventional presentation 

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are not inhumane alternative to 

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work in reality they routinely 

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impose and discriminate harms 

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on civilian populations in ways 

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that far exceed what would be 

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permissible on the battlefield. 

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Unpacked this for us, you are 

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essentially saying that the 

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harm that sanctions Economic 

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Broad Sanctions are having a 

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civilian population is actually 

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worse than war at times, at 

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least in terms of what is 

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permitted in court, but not 

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regulated at all when it comes 

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to economic sanctions. Can you 

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explain this further? Yeah, I 

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think the Cree word in the 

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sentence that you quoted there 

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from my piece with Aziz is 

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indiscriminate so in the 

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battlefield, there is a 

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requirement of distinction 

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between civilians and military 

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targets. be the soldiers or 

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military infrastructure, but in 

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the world of sanction. There 

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isn’t any such distinction did 

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no such distinction is remotely 

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possible for the reasons that 

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you pointed to in your 

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introductory comments the 

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economic consequences of 

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broad-based Sanctions affect 

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health infrastructure, water 

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and sanitation the possibility 

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of sustaining education access 

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to critical foods. These are 

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what are necessary for the 

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sustaining of the welfare 

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humanitarian welfare of 

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civilian populations. so the 

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very things that are targeted 

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are directly tied to civilians. 

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you can take any. Examples For 

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instance, there’s a widely 

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sided sometimes. a contested 

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figure, but nonetheless one 

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that has largely been confirmed 

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and sourced to. you know, 

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sources like Unicef medical 

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journals and so forth of 500 

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thousand deaths of children as 

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a of the embargo that was 

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placed on Iraq during the 

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thirteen-year Sanctions regime 

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that was imposed on Iraq 

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following or I’m sorry 12 year 

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Sanctions regime imposed 

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following the invasion of 

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Kuwait There is no. That you 

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could possibly undertake 

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lawfully on a battlefield any 

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strategy that would would have 

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consequence of 

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disproportionately harming 

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children, but this has in fact 

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been the predictable 

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consequence in terms of infant 

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mortality rates and stunting of 

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human development of children 

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in many countries where 

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economic sanctions have been 

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imposed and they’re just 

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looking only at the health 

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consequences, we see a rise in 

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malaria cases, we see rises in 

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common bacterial infections 

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that would be easily 

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preventable. Other 

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circumstances we see outbreaks 

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of mass epidemics in otherwise 

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largely controlled diseases 

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like cholera. We see Tyus, we 

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see measles. I mean these are 

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the kinds of consequences just 

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in the health area not to speak 

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of the the You know food 

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insecurity malnutrition. just 

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the enormous consequences of 

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that. We’re really the 

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predictable result of imposing 

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Broad and not withstanding the 

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much touted logic of. Sanctions 

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when it comes to some of the 

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US’s principal adversaries in 

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the international system, we 

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don’t impose targeted 

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sanctions. We impose Broad 

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Based Economic Sanctions 

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whether on on Iran or Syria or 

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Venezuela or Cuba or others, 

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historically like the Iraqi 

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case, I cited and we imposed 

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secondary Sanctions, the course 

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other countries to share in our 

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strategy of imposing these 

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kinds of conditions on 

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humanitarian population. so 

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take all of this together. 

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Scale of the damage that can be 

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tied to broad Based Economic 

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Sanctions may at times well 

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exceeded what civilians would 

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bear in the the brunt of 

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permissible strategies on the 

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military battlefield. and why 

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is that not a bigger issue in 

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that sense? I mean why is it 

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that given this you still have 

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a rather common phenomenon in 

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which on the basis of seeking 

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to protect you rights, 

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including human rights 

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activists that this is still a 

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tool. Preference look anyone 

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working in the humanitarian 

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field of human rights knows 

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that the notion of sanctions to 

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promote human rights or 

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humanitarian is just an 

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oxymoron. I mean that is a 

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strategy for selling this 

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particular set of policies to 

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domestic audiences by 

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presenting it as either more 

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humane as you said in your 

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introductory, comments or non 

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military and I would contest 

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both of those claims to begin 

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with and as Peter Beard has 

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also written we can now. The 

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comprehensive blockades that we 

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see in in certain countries, 

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notably American adversaries 

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that are being imposed to 

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economic siege, which is a 

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military tactic. so we see 

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tactics that really draw on the 

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military playbook that are 

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being deployed under the cover 

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of sanctions sanctions also 

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satisfy domestic audiences and 

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not only by being presented as 

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a non military option, but also 

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because they impose few costs 

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on the sending state so the 

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country that’s imposing 

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sanctions is. Absorb the cost 

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and can be inattentive to the 

292
00:09:08,200 --> 00:09:09,866
consequences so we rarely see 

293
00:09:09,866 --> 00:09:10,667
meaningful assessments for 

294
00:09:10,667 --> 00:09:12,733
example, the civilian Impact of 

295
00:09:12,733 --> 00:09:14,232
sanctions and when there are 

296
00:09:14,232 --> 00:09:16,234
such assessments provided by 

297
00:09:16,234 --> 00:09:17,500
third parties, we point to 

298
00:09:17,500 --> 00:09:20,266
things like humanitarian carbs 

299
00:09:20,266 --> 00:09:20,867
licensing regimes that 

300
00:09:20,867 --> 00:09:22,366
purportedly exempt food stuffs 

301
00:09:22,366 --> 00:09:24,566
or medicines from the sanctions 

302
00:09:24,566 --> 00:09:26,033
regime, but what we can see 

303
00:09:26,033 --> 00:09:27,299
plainly when we look at any 

304
00:09:27,299 --> 00:09:28,533
number of countries here at 

305
00:09:28,533 --> 00:09:30,133
Iran and Yemen, particularly 

306
00:09:30,133 --> 00:09:31,900
come to mind where you have 

307
00:09:31,900 --> 00:09:33,000
those carve outs, they are 

308
00:09:33,000 --> 00:09:35,133
ineffective. And they are 

309
00:09:35,133 --> 00:09:36,566
ineffective because suppliers 

310
00:09:36,566 --> 00:09:38,067
simply do not want to absorb 

311
00:09:38,067 --> 00:09:39,667
the additional transaction 

312
00:09:39,667 --> 00:09:41,633
costs or the risks associated 

313
00:09:41,633 --> 00:09:43,100
with trading with a country 

314
00:09:43,100 --> 00:09:44,600
that is facing a comprehensive 

315
00:09:44,600 --> 00:09:46,367
embargo or an actor that has 

316
00:09:46,367 --> 00:09:47,599
been listed as a terrorist 

317
00:09:47,599 --> 00:09:50,066
entity and this radically 

318
00:09:50,066 --> 00:09:51,567
complicates the possibility of 

319
00:09:51,567 --> 00:09:53,633
delivering basic humanitarian 

320
00:09:53,633 --> 00:09:54,100
assistance to civilian 

321
00:09:54,100 --> 00:09:55,766
populations and undermine their 

322
00:09:55,766 --> 00:09:58,333
human rights without question 

323
00:09:58,333 --> 00:09:59,666
nonetheless because the 

324
00:09:59,666 --> 00:10:01,133
audiences in you know domestic 

325
00:10:01,133 --> 00:10:02,000
audiences in the United States, 

326
00:10:02,000 --> 00:10:05,367
for example. Are not well aware 

327
00:10:05,367 --> 00:10:07,367
of these consequences and 

328
00:10:07,367 --> 00:10:08,732
understands Sanctions as an 

329
00:10:08,732 --> 00:10:11,099
alternative to direct military 

330
00:10:11,099 --> 00:10:13,000
action. They’re much easier to 

331
00:10:13,000 --> 00:10:14,467
sell and that I think is a 

332
00:10:14,467 --> 00:10:15,967
problem that we need to you 

333
00:10:15,967 --> 00:10:18,199
know, increase our own efforts 

334
00:10:18,199 --> 00:10:19,700
to draw attention to in this 

335
00:10:19,700 --> 00:10:21,332
event. Is you know I think part 

336
00:10:21,332 --> 00:10:24,733
of that you know strategy and 

337
00:10:24,733 --> 00:10:26,100
what we really need to do is 

338
00:10:26,100 --> 00:10:27,667
develop an actual alternative 

339
00:10:27,667 --> 00:10:29,200
to coercive means whether they 

340
00:10:29,200 --> 00:10:30,567
be direct military action or 

341
00:10:30,567 --> 00:10:34,200
these kinds of course of San. 

342
00:10:34,200 --> 00:10:34,866
In order to advance our 

343
00:10:34,866 --> 00:10:36,833
political objectives, we need 

344
00:10:36,833 --> 00:10:38,066
to define objectives that are 

345
00:10:38,066 --> 00:10:39,599
attainable and define 

346
00:10:39,599 --> 00:10:40,600
appropriate tools that are 

347
00:10:40,600 --> 00:10:42,433
properly tailored to achieving 

348
00:10:42,433 --> 00:10:43,966
those objectives. Neither 

349
00:10:43,966 --> 00:10:46,100
direct military action nor 

350
00:10:46,100 --> 00:10:48,766
Sanctions meet that set of 

351
00:10:48,766 --> 00:10:50,299
objectives in my view and so we 

352
00:10:50,299 --> 00:10:51,800
should understand Sanctions as 

353
00:10:51,800 --> 00:10:54,166
as much part of the story of 

354
00:10:54,166 --> 00:10:55,966
Forever war and therefore as 

355
00:10:55,966 --> 00:10:57,332
much susceptible to the logics 

356
00:10:57,332 --> 00:10:59,800
of restraint as the forms of 

357
00:10:59,800 --> 00:11:00,800
more direct military action 

358
00:11:00,800 --> 00:11:01,467
that occasionally resistance 

359
00:11:01,467 --> 00:11:04,200
amongst us. Audiences. very 

360
00:11:04,200 --> 00:11:05,433
interesting and and you 

361
00:11:05,433 --> 00:11:07,633
mentioned in your comics there 

362
00:11:07,633 --> 00:11:08,533
both that this should be seen 

363
00:11:08,533 --> 00:11:10,667
as part of World War. You also 

364
00:11:10,667 --> 00:11:12,166
use the word siege and and that 

365
00:11:12,166 --> 00:11:14,666
brings me to Peter your peace 

366
00:11:14,666 --> 00:11:19,032
and in New York Times. did 

367
00:11:19,032 --> 00:11:22,733
specifically. Talk about 

368
00:11:22,733 --> 00:11:25,267
sanctions as being a siege, you 

369
00:11:25,267 --> 00:11:26,566
do not want to call them 

370
00:11:26,566 --> 00:11:29,066
sanctions. Could you explain to 

371
00:11:29,066 --> 00:11:30,266
us? why you chose those words 

372
00:11:30,266 --> 00:11:32,000
and also explain what happened 

373
00:11:32,000 --> 00:11:34,832
in the Iraqi case. in terms of 

374
00:11:34,832 --> 00:11:37,200
because what’s talking about in 

375
00:11:37,200 --> 00:11:38,866
some ways appears as if you 

376
00:11:38,866 --> 00:11:41,067
know inadvertently it leads to 

377
00:11:41,067 --> 00:11:42,599
humanitarian goods, not going 

378
00:11:42,599 --> 00:11:43,733
in there, but what happened 

379
00:11:43,733 --> 00:11:47,766
with the oil for sales. during 

380
00:11:47,766 --> 00:11:50,166
the rock Sanctions was not that 

381
00:11:50,166 --> 00:11:51,600
inadvertently those goods could 

382
00:11:51,600 --> 00:11:52,833
not make it to Iraq on the 

383
00:11:52,833 --> 00:11:53,600
country. Could you explain that 

384
00:11:53,600 --> 00:11:56,632
a little bit further? Peter? 

385
00:11:56,632 --> 00:11:58,200
You’re on mute. Oh, yeah I want 

386
00:11:58,200 --> 00:12:00,167
to I just just wanted to. I 

387
00:12:00,167 --> 00:12:01,133
wanted to acknowledge that I 

388
00:12:01,133 --> 00:12:02,499
was really influenced in in 

389
00:12:02,499 --> 00:12:04,566
writing my piece by by the 

390
00:12:04,566 --> 00:12:06,000
piece that a coauthored and 

391
00:12:06,000 --> 00:12:08,799
also by by Joy Gordon’s Book 

392
00:12:08,799 --> 00:12:09,967
Invisible War, which I would 

393
00:12:09,967 --> 00:12:10,567
really highly recommend along 

394
00:12:10,567 --> 00:12:12,466
with her other work. I was did 

395
00:12:12,466 --> 00:12:14,199
not come into this is that 

396
00:12:14,199 --> 00:12:15,133
sanctions expert. I’m not a 

397
00:12:15,133 --> 00:12:16,700
Sanctions expert, but II was 

398
00:12:16,700 --> 00:12:17,966
lucky enough to benefit from 

399
00:12:17,966 --> 00:12:20,333
people who who really are and 

400
00:12:20,333 --> 00:12:21,767
one of the things that II think 

401
00:12:21,767 --> 00:12:23,666
is always really important in 

402
00:12:23,666 --> 00:12:24,467
this in in public policy, 

403
00:12:24,467 --> 00:12:26,167
debates and foreign policy. 

404
00:12:26,167 --> 00:12:28,766
Debate is to try to get past 

405
00:12:28,766 --> 00:12:31,166
some of the the language that 

406
00:12:31,166 --> 00:12:32,666
kind of often euphemism 

407
00:12:32,666 --> 00:12:34,066
language are kind of wonky 

408
00:12:34,066 --> 00:12:36,000
language that obscures what’s 

409
00:12:36,000 --> 00:12:37,533
actually happening and 

410
00:12:37,533 --> 00:12:38,199
desensitize people. So it’s a 

411
00:12:38,199 --> 00:12:40,733
term like secondary Sanctions, 

412
00:12:40,733 --> 00:12:42,299
you know, which is a term which 

413
00:12:42,299 --> 00:12:43,267
is the term that’s often used. 

414
00:12:43,267 --> 00:12:44,733
I don’t just doesn’t pass you 

415
00:12:44,733 --> 00:12:46,267
know, doesn’t pack any 

416
00:12:46,267 --> 00:12:47,466
emotional punch and people kind 

417
00:12:47,466 --> 00:12:48,567
of gloss over it and go on to 

418
00:12:48,567 --> 00:12:50,166
their Instagram accounts. But 

419
00:12:50,166 --> 00:12:51,833
but if you if you actually talk 

420
00:12:51,833 --> 00:12:53,333
about try to find a kind of a 

421
00:12:53,333 --> 00:12:54,133
more human way of talking about 

422
00:12:54,133 --> 00:12:55,833
what’s happening. Which is 

423
00:12:55,833 --> 00:12:56,999
essentially not just that the 

424
00:12:56,999 --> 00:12:58,267
US says we won’t trade with 

425
00:12:58,267 --> 00:13:00,733
you, but essentially we try to 

426
00:13:00,733 --> 00:13:02,499
build to to force the rest of 

427
00:13:02,499 --> 00:13:04,532
the world to not trade with a 

428
00:13:04,532 --> 00:13:06,433
besieged country as well, I 

429
00:13:06,433 --> 00:13:08,933
think that creates. rightly a 

430
00:13:08,933 --> 00:13:11,633
kind of a military analogy to 

431
00:13:11,633 --> 00:13:14,033
what’s actually happening and 

432
00:13:14,033 --> 00:13:16,700
the you know in the in the case 

433
00:13:16,700 --> 00:13:19,967
of Iraq the the United States 

434
00:13:19,967 --> 00:13:22,234
used its power at the United 

435
00:13:22,234 --> 00:13:23,367
Nations and and Joy Gordon 

436
00:13:23,367 --> 00:13:25,299
really has kind of all the. 

437
00:13:25,299 --> 00:13:27,700
Documentation on this to to to 

438
00:13:27,700 --> 00:13:30,167
have a definition of dual use 

439
00:13:30,167 --> 00:13:32,000
items that was so sweeping that 

440
00:13:32,000 --> 00:13:33,233
you couldn’t that Iraq could 

441
00:13:33,233 --> 00:13:35,633
not bring in antibiotics dental 

442
00:13:35,633 --> 00:13:37,000
equipment. I mean, just many of 

443
00:13:37,000 --> 00:13:38,499
them are basic things for life 

444
00:13:38,499 --> 00:13:40,466
and and I think you know one of 

445
00:13:40,466 --> 00:13:42,567
the things that’s so striking 

446
00:13:42,567 --> 00:13:43,466
and I think that we in the 

447
00:13:43,466 --> 00:13:44,499
media really have to look at it 

448
00:13:44,499 --> 00:13:46,766
is it’s not as if in the 1990s 

449
00:13:46,766 --> 00:13:49,032
there were not people who were 

450
00:13:49,032 --> 00:13:50,766
talking about the consequences 

451
00:13:50,766 --> 00:13:51,932
for Iraqi society. You You 

452
00:13:51,932 --> 00:13:53,567
didn’t have a Saddam Hussein 

453
00:13:53,567 --> 00:13:55,199
apologist. Have to get it from 

454
00:13:55,199 --> 00:13:56,267
the Iraqi government. They were 

455
00:13:56,267 --> 00:13:59,133
UN 

456
00:13:59,133 --> 00:13:59,267
Who are 

457
00:13:59,267 --> 00:14:00,333
Who are resigning and speaking 

458
00:14:00,333 --> 00:14:02,633
out basically because they were 

459
00:14:02,633 --> 00:14:03,867
because they were saying we’re 

460
00:14:03,867 --> 00:14:05,533
destroying an entire society 

461
00:14:05,533 --> 00:14:08,067
here and yet the the the kind 

462
00:14:08,067 --> 00:14:09,733
of debate in Washington and I 

463
00:14:09,733 --> 00:14:10,899
feel like in many ways we’re 

464
00:14:10,899 --> 00:14:12,299
still mired in many of these 

465
00:14:12,299 --> 00:14:14,700
terms, It’s essentially to say 

466
00:14:14,700 --> 00:14:16,667
if you challenge Sanctions, you 

467
00:14:16,667 --> 00:14:18,633
were there on the side of 

468
00:14:18,633 --> 00:14:20,167
Saddam Hussein, right, which 

469
00:14:20,167 --> 00:14:21,533
was ridiculous because actually 

470
00:14:21,533 --> 00:14:22,899
Saddam Hussein wasn’t really 

471
00:14:22,899 --> 00:14:24,033
being hurt by the sanctions. in 

472
00:14:24,033 --> 00:14:25,467
many ways, it was actually 

473
00:14:25,467 --> 00:14:26,499
helping to prop up his regime. 

474
00:14:26,499 --> 00:14:29,300
What it was just. Doing was 

475
00:14:29,300 --> 00:14:30,800
destroying impoverished people 

476
00:14:30,800 --> 00:14:32,200
in Iraq and meaning that those 

477
00:14:32,200 --> 00:14:33,666
who could get out got out, 

478
00:14:33,666 --> 00:14:34,833
which is part of the reason 

479
00:14:34,833 --> 00:14:35,700
that we didn’t have the the 

480
00:14:35,700 --> 00:14:37,366
kind of civil society that 

481
00:14:37,366 --> 00:14:38,800
might have allowed Iraq to to 

482
00:14:38,800 --> 00:14:40,167
go in a different direction 

483
00:14:40,167 --> 00:14:42,734
after the United States invaded 

484
00:14:42,734 --> 00:14:45,200
or that that there was also an 

485
00:14:45,200 --> 00:14:46,067
inability to actually think 

486
00:14:46,067 --> 00:14:48,166
about alternative policy 

487
00:14:48,166 --> 00:14:49,300
outcomes, which would have been 

488
00:14:49,300 --> 00:14:51,233
more realistic in terms of the 

489
00:14:51,233 --> 00:14:53,100
power that the US had, and I 

490
00:14:53,100 --> 00:14:55,467
think that part of what props 

491
00:14:55,467 --> 00:14:56,299
up makes it so difficult for 

492
00:14:56,299 --> 00:14:59,433
people. In Congress to have an 

493
00:14:59,433 --> 00:15:01,566
alternative conversation about 

494
00:15:01,566 --> 00:15:02,833
sanctions and to look at and to 

495
00:15:02,833 --> 00:15:04,599
look instead of diplomacy is 

496
00:15:04,599 --> 00:15:05,900
that diplomacy requires give 

497
00:15:05,900 --> 00:15:08,232
and take right Sanctions allows 

498
00:15:08,232 --> 00:15:10,466
this kind of mythic idea that 

499
00:15:10,466 --> 00:15:12,033
basically as long as we keep 

500
00:15:12,033 --> 00:15:13,533
punishing these these countries 

501
00:15:13,533 --> 00:15:14,666
eventually they’re just going 

502
00:15:14,666 --> 00:15:16,132
to fall the regimes are going 

503
00:15:16,132 --> 00:15:17,433
to collapse or they’re going to 

504
00:15:17,433 --> 00:15:19,033
give up on things like nuclear 

505
00:15:19,033 --> 00:15:20,099
weapons that in the case of 

506
00:15:20,099 --> 00:15:21,433
North Korea, they clearly have 

507
00:15:21,433 --> 00:15:23,366
decided is is it’s absolutely 

508
00:15:23,366 --> 00:15:25,167
necessary for their regime and 

509
00:15:25,167 --> 00:15:28,100
so it’s suspends an A. A debate 

510
00:15:28,100 --> 00:15:28,899
because nobody wants to 

511
00:15:28,899 --> 00:15:30,600
actually step forward and say 

512
00:15:30,600 --> 00:15:32,266
you know what we don’t have the 

513
00:15:32,266 --> 00:15:33,133
power, whether these are good 

514
00:15:33,133 --> 00:15:34,733
outcomes or not we don’t have 

515
00:15:34,733 --> 00:15:36,467
the power to achieve them. 

516
00:15:36,467 --> 00:15:38,000
We’re we’re overestimating 

517
00:15:38,000 --> 00:15:39,232
American power. so let’s have a 

518
00:15:39,232 --> 00:15:40,900
real world conversation about 

519
00:15:40,900 --> 00:15:42,967
what we can actually achieve 

520
00:15:42,967 --> 00:15:44,867
with actual tools that are 

521
00:15:44,867 --> 00:15:48,532
actually morally defensible. 

522
00:15:51,166 --> 00:15:54,000
No Sorry II want to get back to 

523
00:15:54,000 --> 00:15:55,433
what you just said there 

524
00:15:55,433 --> 00:15:58,133
because. I think you’re right, 

525
00:15:58,133 --> 00:15:59,533
There’s definitely a lack of 

526
00:15:59,533 --> 00:16:01,532
desire to acknowledge that some 

527
00:16:01,532 --> 00:16:03,233
of the objectives cannot be 

528
00:16:03,233 --> 00:16:05,033
achieved, but I think there’s 

529
00:16:05,033 --> 00:16:07,634
also potentially other UN 

530
00:16:07,634 --> 00:16:09,767
stated objectives that we 

531
00:16:09,767 --> 00:16:10,833
pursue and that’s part of the 

532
00:16:10,833 --> 00:16:11,700
reason why we keep it and I’m 

533
00:16:11,700 --> 00:16:12,467
going to get back to that, but 

534
00:16:12,467 --> 00:16:14,033
I want to bring Josh into the 

535
00:16:14,033 --> 00:16:15,633
conversation in the case of 

536
00:16:15,633 --> 00:16:17,800
Iraq as Peter also appointed to 

537
00:16:17,800 --> 00:16:19,700
we had essentially as the UN 

538
00:16:19,700 --> 00:16:21,167
officials a destruction of 

539
00:16:21,167 --> 00:16:23,866
society and it is. That they 

540
00:16:23,866 --> 00:16:26,300
were unofficial that spoke out 

541
00:16:26,300 --> 00:16:27,734
about the danger Sanctions 

542
00:16:27,734 --> 00:16:30,232
resigned even in some cases 

543
00:16:30,232 --> 00:16:31,967
over the impact of sanctions on 

544
00:16:31,967 --> 00:16:34,067
society, but I do wonder if the 

545
00:16:34,067 --> 00:16:35,966
decibel has increased now. I 

546
00:16:35,966 --> 00:16:37,467
mean we have a situation in 

547
00:16:37,467 --> 00:16:39,467
which the Trump administration 

548
00:16:39,467 --> 00:16:42,399
imposed. terrorism designation 

549
00:16:42,399 --> 00:16:44,967
of the Houthis and there was an 

550
00:16:44,967 --> 00:16:46,167
outcry from humanitarian 

551
00:16:46,167 --> 00:16:47,000
organizations, pointing out 

552
00:16:47,000 --> 00:16:48,933
that this is going to prevent 

553
00:16:48,933 --> 00:16:50,933
humanitarian trade to go into 

554
00:16:50,933 --> 00:16:53,033
Yemen and this was reversed. 

555
00:16:53,033 --> 00:16:54,666
Amen In the case of Syria, 

556
00:16:54,666 --> 00:16:57,000
however, it does not seem to be 

557
00:16:57,000 --> 00:16:58,966
any appetite for reversal of 

558
00:16:58,966 --> 00:17:00,999
the Caesar Act or other types 

559
00:17:00,999 --> 00:17:02,033
of sanctions that have been 

560
00:17:02,033 --> 00:17:03,532
imposed and my question to you 

561
00:17:03,532 --> 00:17:06,666
is are we going to see in Syria 

562
00:17:06,666 --> 00:17:08,600
in a couple of years, the same 

563
00:17:08,600 --> 00:17:10,666
type of phenomenon that we saw 

564
00:17:10,666 --> 00:17:12,533
in Iraq after years of 

565
00:17:12,533 --> 00:17:13,266
sanctions indicates of Syria 

566
00:17:13,266 --> 00:17:15,867
years of civil war, as well in 

567
00:17:15,867 --> 00:17:19,567
which it become an ungovernable 

568
00:17:19,567 --> 00:17:21,467
state at some point. Well, you 

569
00:17:21,467 --> 00:17:24,333
know. III want to reiterate 

570
00:17:24,333 --> 00:17:26,666
what Peter and Wesley have said 

571
00:17:26,666 --> 00:17:28,232
this. this really is we’re 

572
00:17:28,232 --> 00:17:30,300
already seeing those outcomes 

573
00:17:30,300 --> 00:17:30,966
in Syria. They’re they’re 

574
00:17:30,966 --> 00:17:32,300
already there. People are 

575
00:17:32,300 --> 00:17:34,700
starving and and medical 

576
00:17:34,700 --> 00:17:36,367
equipment is not getting into 

577
00:17:36,367 --> 00:17:38,333
the country. prices have gone 

578
00:17:38,333 --> 00:17:42,367
up This is a siege it is war by 

579
00:17:42,367 --> 00:17:43,966
other means and and people are 

580
00:17:43,966 --> 00:17:45,466
going to die in large numbers 

581
00:17:45,466 --> 00:17:46,700
because it’s completely 

582
00:17:46,700 --> 00:17:48,333
indiscriminate as us pointed 

583
00:17:48,333 --> 00:17:51,732
out and you know if we put the 

584
00:17:51,732 --> 00:17:54,266
serious sanctions into the 

585
00:17:54,266 --> 00:17:55,467
larger context of American 

586
00:17:55,467 --> 00:17:57,467
policy, I think it becomes 

587
00:17:57,467 --> 00:18:01,266
starkly. Clear that this is war 

588
00:18:01,266 --> 00:18:03,433
by other means, and it’s a very 

589
00:18:03,433 --> 00:18:06,866
broad based war and if we just 

590
00:18:06,866 --> 00:18:08,966
take the words. of special 

591
00:18:08,966 --> 00:18:13,032
envoy. Jim Jefferies who Jim 

592
00:18:13,032 --> 00:18:14,500
Jeffrey was sent out there. 

593
00:18:14,500 --> 00:18:15,800
Ambassador Jim Jeffrey He’s an 

594
00:18:15,800 --> 00:18:18,100
ambassador in Iraq by Trump and 

595
00:18:18,100 --> 00:18:21,200
he really put together. a and 

596
00:18:21,200 --> 00:18:22,567
articulated a policy that Biden 

597
00:18:22,567 --> 00:18:26,232
is continuing which was to deny 

598
00:18:26,232 --> 00:18:28,533
as much of Syria in the north. 

599
00:18:28,533 --> 00:18:30,533
To side as possible, which is 

600
00:18:30,533 --> 00:18:32,766
about 35% of the country and 

601
00:18:32,766 --> 00:18:33,933
he’s there are three different 

602
00:18:33,933 --> 00:18:36,766
zones. There’s the Kurdish 

603
00:18:36,766 --> 00:18:38,033
predominantly Kurdish area in 

604
00:18:38,033 --> 00:18:40,900
the Northeast, where the Syrian 

605
00:18:40,900 --> 00:18:42,133
democratic forces named by 

606
00:18:42,133 --> 00:18:44,833
American Colonel are. most of 

607
00:18:44,833 --> 00:18:47,200
the oil most of the agriculture 

608
00:18:47,200 --> 00:18:48,800
and control much of the water 

609
00:18:48,800 --> 00:18:52,234
of Syria so the vital resources 

610
00:18:52,234 --> 00:18:53,632
for the nation for feeding the 

611
00:18:53,632 --> 00:18:55,200
nation and and driving 

612
00:18:55,200 --> 00:18:57,699
electricity and other important 

613
00:18:57,699 --> 00:18:59,200
elements of the nation are 

614
00:18:59,200 --> 00:19:01,000
exclude are kept away from the 

615
00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:03,234
government. And the Syrian 

616
00:19:03,234 --> 00:19:03,933
people the majority of the 

617
00:19:03,933 --> 00:19:04,966
Syrian people who are living 

618
00:19:04,966 --> 00:19:07,200
under the government’s control 

619
00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:08,766
in northern Aleppo, another 

620
00:19:08,766 --> 00:19:11,233
province, Turkey has its 

621
00:19:11,233 --> 00:19:12,733
proxies there, and then there’s 

622
00:19:12,733 --> 00:19:15,234
Idlib province, which is ruled 

623
00:19:15,234 --> 00:19:17,567
by Mohammad al Baghdadi. No 

624
00:19:17,567 --> 00:19:19,767
excuse me my Muhammad alani, 

625
00:19:19,767 --> 00:19:21,567
but he was the right hand man 

626
00:19:21,567 --> 00:19:23,800
of Caleb Baghdadi. He was 

627
00:19:23,800 --> 00:19:26,033
fought with al Qaeda in Iraq. 

628
00:19:26,033 --> 00:19:28,599
He was sent out by Caleb The to 

629
00:19:28,599 --> 00:19:31,133
start the Syrian part of the 

630
00:19:31,133 --> 00:19:31,800
Islamic State in Syria and 

631
00:19:31,800 --> 00:19:35,134
Iraq, and he did which was. He 

632
00:19:35,134 --> 00:19:35,966
broke away from Baghdad 

633
00:19:35,966 --> 00:19:39,132
eventually giving his his 

634
00:19:39,132 --> 00:19:41,632
allegiance to al Qaeda in 

635
00:19:41,632 --> 00:19:42,332
Afghanistan, and then he broke 

636
00:19:42,332 --> 00:19:44,699
away from that and has created 

637
00:19:44,699 --> 00:19:48,667
HTS as to which runs. Idlib and 

638
00:19:48,667 --> 00:19:51,199
just recently. ambassador 

639
00:19:51,199 --> 00:19:52,599
Jeffrey said he is an American 

640
00:19:52,599 --> 00:19:54,133
asset called him an American 

641
00:19:54,133 --> 00:19:55,900
asset because he’s helping to 

642
00:19:55,900 --> 00:19:58,300
deny this important 

643
00:19:58,300 --> 00:20:00,700
agricultural province to Assad. 

644
00:20:00,700 --> 00:20:01,767
So there are these three 

645
00:20:01,767 --> 00:20:04,333
sections, which are being deny. 

646
00:20:04,333 --> 00:20:06,833
The Syrian people vital parts 

647
00:20:06,833 --> 00:20:08,699
of their country, which is part 

648
00:20:08,699 --> 00:20:11,866
of the sanctions regime and a 

649
00:20:11,866 --> 00:20:15,699
third part is to sabotage 

650
00:20:15,699 --> 00:20:17,199
Iranian oil tankers that are 

651
00:20:17,199 --> 00:20:18,700
coming through the Suez Canal 

652
00:20:18,700 --> 00:20:19,933
going up to Syria to feed them 

653
00:20:19,933 --> 00:20:21,500
with oil because Syria can’t 

654
00:20:21,500 --> 00:20:23,566
get oil from anybody else 

655
00:20:23,566 --> 00:20:25,266
because these sanctions and 

656
00:20:25,266 --> 00:20:26,732
secondary Sanctions and so to 

657
00:20:26,732 --> 00:20:29,532
get the electricity to run a 

658
00:20:29,532 --> 00:20:30,733
vitally important to run 

659
00:20:30,733 --> 00:20:31,966
schools, hospitals, you name 

660
00:20:31,966 --> 00:20:35,167
it. you need that oil. And over 

661
00:20:35,167 --> 00:20:36,566
twelve of those ships we 

662
00:20:36,566 --> 00:20:39,300
learned just recently in the 

663
00:20:39,300 --> 00:20:41,533
Wall Street Journal have been 

664
00:20:41,533 --> 00:20:43,266
sabotaged by putting minds on 

665
00:20:43,266 --> 00:20:47,033
them and and scuttle so this is 

666
00:20:47,033 --> 00:20:49,566
keeping the oil from going to 

667
00:20:49,566 --> 00:20:51,099
Syria. So really, this is a 

668
00:20:51,099 --> 00:20:53,667
very broad based policy and 

669
00:20:53,667 --> 00:20:54,833
James Jeffrey you know when we 

670
00:20:54,833 --> 00:20:57,700
get to the language you know in 

671
00:20:57,700 --> 00:20:58,499
theory, this is to bring 

672
00:20:58,499 --> 00:21:00,134
democratic transition in a 

673
00:21:00,134 --> 00:21:03,132
political solution based on UN 

674
00:21:03,132 --> 00:21:08,266
resolution to five five. 42254, 

675
00:21:08,266 --> 00:21:10,633
which is supposed to bring 

676
00:21:10,633 --> 00:21:12,133
elections overseen by the UN. 

677
00:21:12,133 --> 00:21:14,966
Now this is impossible to 

678
00:21:14,966 --> 00:21:17,534
achieve given the tools of 

679
00:21:17,534 --> 00:21:19,134
starving the Syrian people, 

680
00:21:19,134 --> 00:21:21,033
which is what this is really 

681
00:21:21,033 --> 00:21:22,500
about starve the Syrian people 

682
00:21:22,500 --> 00:21:25,100
in theory as will leave the UN 

683
00:21:25,100 --> 00:21:27,000
will take over there will be 

684
00:21:27,000 --> 00:21:29,033
free elections and the 

685
00:21:29,033 --> 00:21:29,666
opposition will get to have a 

686
00:21:29,666 --> 00:21:31,032
part of the government. That’s 

687
00:21:31,032 --> 00:21:33,634
the idea, But of course it’s 

688
00:21:33,634 --> 00:21:35,500
completely unrealistic and 

689
00:21:35,500 --> 00:21:38,333
James. Jeffrey said this as 

690
00:21:38,333 --> 00:21:40,200
much and he’s given a bunch of 

691
00:21:40,200 --> 00:21:41,700
exit interviews, which I 

692
00:21:41,700 --> 00:21:44,066
recommend everybody read 

693
00:21:44,066 --> 00:21:45,733
because he said, look at these 

694
00:21:45,733 --> 00:21:47,066
are our high aims and why not 

695
00:21:47,066 --> 00:21:49,000
articulate them. We understand 

696
00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:50,266
they’re unrealistic, but what 

697
00:21:50,266 --> 00:21:52,900
we really what my job was was 

698
00:21:52,900 --> 00:21:56,167
to turn Siri into a quagmire. 

699
00:21:56,167 --> 00:21:58,200
for Iran and Russia and to 

700
00:21:58,200 --> 00:22:00,633
defend Israel, of course, and 

701
00:22:00,633 --> 00:22:01,933
that’s what his goal and and 

702
00:22:01,933 --> 00:22:04,166
he, he said. We can do it by 

703
00:22:04,166 --> 00:22:06,466
denying them their resources 

704
00:22:06,466 --> 00:22:09,332
stop. Away from getting in and 

705
00:22:09,332 --> 00:22:11,600
sanctioning secondary Sanctions 

706
00:22:11,600 --> 00:22:13,566
any businessman and a Caesar 

707
00:22:13,566 --> 00:22:15,633
Sanctions are designed and they 

708
00:22:15,633 --> 00:22:17,233
say in them that they are 

709
00:22:17,233 --> 00:22:19,867
they’re they’re targeting 

710
00:22:19,867 --> 00:22:23,167
electric. the electric grid 

711
00:22:23,167 --> 00:22:24,766
that was largely destroyed. 50% 

712
00:22:24,766 --> 00:22:26,100
of the plants were destroyed 

713
00:22:26,100 --> 00:22:28,666
from being rebuilt as well as 

714
00:22:28,666 --> 00:22:30,100
from the oil infrastructure. so 

715
00:22:30,100 --> 00:22:31,867
any secondary any businessman 

716
00:22:31,867 --> 00:22:33,267
from Lebanon or Jordan or 

717
00:22:33,267 --> 00:22:37,000
Turkey who goes in and tries to 

718
00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:39,099
invest. And rebuilding the 

719
00:22:39,099 --> 00:22:41,634
electric plants we’ll get 

720
00:22:41,634 --> 00:22:43,200
secondary Sanctions and so this 

721
00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:45,700
is puts a very high cost for 

722
00:22:45,700 --> 00:22:47,899
the regimes to try to rebuild 

723
00:22:47,899 --> 00:22:49,967
its electric infrastructure and 

724
00:22:49,967 --> 00:22:51,966
I just got a note from a friend 

725
00:22:51,966 --> 00:22:54,033
in Syria, the other day who 

726
00:22:54,033 --> 00:22:56,634
said we’re getting 1 hour out 

727
00:22:56,634 --> 00:22:58,433
of maybe five of electricity. 

728
00:22:58,433 --> 00:23:00,633
nobody is getting electricity. 

729
00:23:00,633 --> 00:23:02,233
My wife is was one. and kids 

730
00:23:02,233 --> 00:23:03,600
were going to go and visit 

731
00:23:03,600 --> 00:23:06,000
their their grandparents in 

732
00:23:06,000 --> 00:23:09,900
Syria. Who’s 8082 said, don’t 

733
00:23:09,900 --> 00:23:12,000
come there’s no electricity. 

734
00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:13,833
This is just miserable here, he 

735
00:23:13,833 --> 00:23:17,333
said. his pension and his 

736
00:23:17,333 --> 00:23:18,466
wife’s pension. It was a school 

737
00:23:18,466 --> 00:23:21,200
teacher used to add up to 

738
00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:24,033
almost $500 a month, which was 

739
00:23:24,033 --> 00:23:25,832
a King’s pension in Syria at 

740
00:23:25,832 --> 00:23:28,234
the time before the revolution 

741
00:23:28,234 --> 00:23:29,633
today, he said. We did the 

742
00:23:29,633 --> 00:23:31,800
math, he said. I can buy eight 

743
00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:34,666
roasted chickens at the local 

744
00:23:34,666 --> 00:23:36,600
chicken shop with our combined 

745
00:23:36,600 --> 00:23:39,100
pensions. they’re completely. 

746
00:23:39,100 --> 00:23:42,066
On money from coming from 

747
00:23:42,066 --> 00:23:44,632
children and most Syrians don’t 

748
00:23:44,632 --> 00:23:48,099
have that. and and that’s why 

749
00:23:48,099 --> 00:23:49,700
80% of Syrians live below the 

750
00:23:49,700 --> 00:23:52,133
poverty line they’re completely 

751
00:23:52,133 --> 00:23:54,766
dependent on handouts the 

752
00:23:54,766 --> 00:23:56,100
Syrian national budget has 

753
00:23:56,100 --> 00:23:59,133
shrunk to 3.6. $3.6000000000 a 

754
00:23:59,133 --> 00:24:01,667
year. That’s for 14 million 

755
00:24:01,667 --> 00:24:04,232
people, 15 million people. It’s 

756
00:24:04,232 --> 00:24:07,933
nothing. the Syrian state is 

757
00:24:07,933 --> 00:24:11,234
withering, which is the object. 

758
00:24:11,234 --> 00:24:13,766
Of American sanctions and the 

759
00:24:13,766 --> 00:24:15,333
American regime to try to 

760
00:24:15,333 --> 00:24:17,167
strangle Syria, but it’s 

761
00:24:17,167 --> 00:24:19,167
causing the the little people 

762
00:24:19,167 --> 00:24:22,700
to starve the regime people who 

763
00:24:22,700 --> 00:24:24,466
it’s theoretically supposed to 

764
00:24:24,466 --> 00:24:25,732
target who they claim it’s 

765
00:24:25,732 --> 00:24:28,732
targeting are eating full full 

766
00:24:28,732 --> 00:24:30,832
three course meals. I’m they’re 

767
00:24:30,832 --> 00:24:32,033
living like Marie Antoinette 

768
00:24:32,033 --> 00:24:34,466
and they’re not going to leave 

769
00:24:34,466 --> 00:24:36,633
Syria because the people are 

770
00:24:36,633 --> 00:24:38,599
starving. They’ve proven that 

771
00:24:38,599 --> 00:24:39,966
after 10 years of civil war so 

772
00:24:39,966 --> 00:24:43,633
this. Really a heartless? 

773
00:24:43,633 --> 00:24:45,333
policy that’s hurting the 

774
00:24:45,333 --> 00:24:48,599
little people and it’s turning 

775
00:24:48,599 --> 00:24:49,467
Syria into a quagmire and it is 

776
00:24:49,467 --> 00:24:51,766
a quagmire today. Now, it’s not 

777
00:24:51,766 --> 00:24:53,033
the only thing that’s doing 

778
00:24:53,033 --> 00:24:54,199
that the collapse of the 

779
00:24:54,199 --> 00:24:55,633
bankruptcy in Lebanon, there 

780
00:24:55,633 --> 00:24:58,933
are other 

781
00:24:59,633 --> 00:25:00,433
Misery the Syrian people, but 

782
00:25:00,433 --> 00:25:03,933
clearly this policy of denying 

783
00:25:03,933 --> 00:25:07,366
resources sanctioning and 

784
00:25:07,366 --> 00:25:10,400
sabotaging any effort to supply 

785
00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:12,533
Syria is is really starving 

786
00:25:12,533 --> 00:25:14,733
people could I could I could I 

787
00:25:14,733 --> 00:25:16,266
jump in here to just a couple 

788
00:25:16,266 --> 00:25:17,733
of things here and Josh have 

789
00:25:17,733 --> 00:25:18,933
both put on the table? The 

790
00:25:18,933 --> 00:25:20,366
first thing is I think that we 

791
00:25:20,366 --> 00:25:22,566
should. highlight or underscore 

792
00:25:22,566 --> 00:25:25,499
is a symbolic politics of 

793
00:25:25,499 --> 00:25:26,600
sanctions, which have just I 

794
00:25:26,600 --> 00:25:27,433
think been highlighted nicely 

795
00:25:27,433 --> 00:25:28,666
by both of these presentations. 

796
00:25:28,666 --> 00:25:31,700
so Peter Point. Out that you 

797
00:25:31,700 --> 00:25:34,633
know to a large degree, we have 

798
00:25:34,633 --> 00:25:36,433
a kind of sanctions antiseptic 

799
00:25:36,433 --> 00:25:37,266
language that suggests that 

800
00:25:37,266 --> 00:25:38,800
we’re you know secondary 

801
00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:39,500
Sanctions just doesn’t have 

802
00:25:39,500 --> 00:25:40,700
grip you in any way. so there’s 

803
00:25:40,700 --> 00:25:42,700
first of all the symbolic 

804
00:25:42,700 --> 00:25:44,566
reality that the language and 

805
00:25:44,566 --> 00:25:45,333
the way that we describe 

806
00:25:45,333 --> 00:25:46,499
Sanctions, you know obscures 

807
00:25:46,499 --> 00:25:47,932
the picture that Joshua just 

808
00:25:47,932 --> 00:25:49,566
laid out, but there’s the other 

809
00:25:49,566 --> 00:25:50,700
aspect, which he also pointed 

810
00:25:50,700 --> 00:25:52,100
to that. Peter also pointed to 

811
00:25:52,100 --> 00:25:54,367
which is that we tend to use a 

812
00:25:54,367 --> 00:25:55,967
symbolic politics of sanctions 

813
00:25:55,967 --> 00:25:57,799
in this mannequin logic about 

814
00:25:57,799 --> 00:26:00,500
our adversaries so in order. 

815
00:26:00,500 --> 00:26:02,833
Resist Iraq sanctions your 

816
00:26:02,833 --> 00:26:04,600
frame doesn’t apologist for 

817
00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:06,167
Saddam if you are have concerns 

818
00:26:06,167 --> 00:26:07,900
about the consequences of 

819
00:26:07,900 --> 00:26:09,300
sanctions in Syria, you’re an 

820
00:26:09,300 --> 00:26:10,934
apologist for Assad and that 

821
00:26:10,934 --> 00:26:12,000
logic not only inhibits 

822
00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:13,100
critical thinking about what 

823
00:26:13,100 --> 00:26:13,899
these sanctions are 

824
00:26:13,899 --> 00:26:15,000
accomplishing for individuals 

825
00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:16,433
like ourselves right in this 

826
00:26:16,433 --> 00:26:17,499
panel undoubtedly each of us 

827
00:26:17,499 --> 00:26:19,066
will you know be targeted by 

828
00:26:19,066 --> 00:26:20,400
all kinds of folks that think 

829
00:26:20,400 --> 00:26:21,900
we’ve done X or y thing that 

830
00:26:21,900 --> 00:26:24,000
advances whatever bad actors 

831
00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:25,967
goals, but in addition to that, 

832
00:26:25,967 --> 00:26:27,799
it has real implications so the 

833
00:26:27,799 --> 00:26:30,467
normal sort of set. Actors in 

834
00:26:30,467 --> 00:26:31,434
the private sector that you 

835
00:26:31,434 --> 00:26:33,667
would expect after a decade 

836
00:26:33,667 --> 00:26:35,100
would begin to resist the the 

837
00:26:35,100 --> 00:26:37,300
logical Pharmaceuticals Boeing 

838
00:26:37,300 --> 00:26:38,500
in the case of Iran, whoever it 

839
00:26:38,500 --> 00:26:39,966
may be actually won’t do that 

840
00:26:39,966 --> 00:26:42,067
they won’t they won’t spend the 

841
00:26:42,067 --> 00:26:44,533
political capital necessary the 

842
00:26:44,533 --> 00:26:46,299
soft power necessary to appear 

843
00:26:46,299 --> 00:26:47,833
to look as if they are saying 

844
00:26:47,833 --> 00:26:49,300
something that advances any 

845
00:26:49,300 --> 00:26:50,432
Iranian objective or Syrian 

846
00:26:50,432 --> 00:26:51,466
objective or whoever so you 

847
00:26:51,466 --> 00:26:53,400
actually fully disabled the 

848
00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:54,800
possibility of having either 

849
00:26:54,800 --> 00:26:56,433
meaningful critical engagement 

850
00:26:56,433 --> 00:26:57,733
or the ordinary kinds of give 

851
00:26:57,733 --> 00:26:59,433
and take that. Occur around 

852
00:26:59,433 --> 00:27:01,199
economic policy choices so to 

853
00:27:01,199 --> 00:27:02,000
the extent that there is any 

854
00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:03,499
domestic cost, it’s going to be 

855
00:27:03,499 --> 00:27:05,266
absorbed by domestic actors who 

856
00:27:05,266 --> 00:27:07,367
simply do not want to wade into 

857
00:27:07,367 --> 00:27:08,666
this universe of symbolic 

858
00:27:08,666 --> 00:27:09,967
politics. That’s just been 

859
00:27:09,967 --> 00:27:11,133
triggered here and that also 

860
00:27:11,133 --> 00:27:12,366
connects to the point. Peter 

861
00:27:12,366 --> 00:27:13,166
made about you know 

862
00:27:13,166 --> 00:27:14,900
multilateral diplomacy it 

863
00:27:14,900 --> 00:27:15,600
requires engagement. This is 

864
00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:16,566
true first of all with our 

865
00:27:16,566 --> 00:27:18,000
adversaries right so Sanctions 

866
00:27:18,000 --> 00:27:19,667
are not just you know they’re a 

867
00:27:19,667 --> 00:27:21,299
tool that enable us to tell our 

868
00:27:21,299 --> 00:27:23,167
audience that we’re engaging in 

869
00:27:23,167 --> 00:27:24,666
non military action while in 

870
00:27:24,666 --> 00:27:26,467
fact, choosing a course of 

871
00:27:26,467 --> 00:27:27,333
course towards adversaries that 

872
00:27:27,333 --> 00:27:30,500
requires no. Of compromise 

873
00:27:30,500 --> 00:27:32,433
engagement but secondary 

874
00:27:32,433 --> 00:27:33,167
Sanctions have the effect of 

875
00:27:33,167 --> 00:27:34,800
also causing our allies. That’s 

876
00:27:34,800 --> 00:27:36,534
the other group of people. 

877
00:27:36,534 --> 00:27:38,599
We’re not persuading anyone of 

878
00:27:38,599 --> 00:27:39,566
American foreign policy 

879
00:27:39,566 --> 00:27:40,400
objectives. We’re simply 

880
00:27:40,400 --> 00:27:42,267
compelling them to go along by 

881
00:27:42,267 --> 00:27:42,833
threatening their domestic 

882
00:27:42,833 --> 00:27:44,567
industries as well and their 

883
00:27:44,567 --> 00:27:45,867
domestic and the face the same 

884
00:27:45,867 --> 00:27:48,266
exact problems that a US 

885
00:27:48,266 --> 00:27:49,100
bullying may face in this 

886
00:27:49,100 --> 00:27:51,666
context that they may object 

887
00:27:51,666 --> 00:27:52,966
they may have interest at 

888
00:27:52,966 --> 00:27:55,233
stake, but they simply do not 

889
00:27:55,233 --> 00:27:56,600
individually. have I mean they 

890
00:27:56,600 --> 00:27:58,367
cost benefit analysis. Going to 

891
00:27:58,367 --> 00:27:59,399
say, we’re not going to be the 

892
00:27:59,399 --> 00:28:00,900
one to try to resist Iran 

893
00:28:00,900 --> 00:28:02,466
policy so even as the EU as an 

894
00:28:02,466 --> 00:28:05,300
example, has made explicit, 

895
00:28:05,300 --> 00:28:07,432
it’s rejection of Trump 

896
00:28:07,432 --> 00:28:09,233
administration goals in their 

897
00:28:09,233 --> 00:28:10,533
sort of maximum pressure 

898
00:28:10,533 --> 00:28:12,900
campaign European actors have 

899
00:28:12,900 --> 00:28:14,133
had no choice but to go along 

900
00:28:14,133 --> 00:28:15,733
with the secondary Sanctions. 

901
00:28:15,733 --> 00:28:16,266
So it’s not only we’re not 

902
00:28:16,266 --> 00:28:18,400
engaging on the basic front of 

903
00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:20,167
we’re not trying to deescalate 

904
00:28:20,167 --> 00:28:22,499
the Dia adversary relationship. 

905
00:28:22,499 --> 00:28:25,000
We’re also basically dragging 

906
00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:25,832
allies and the rest of the 

907
00:28:25,832 --> 00:28:26,633
world along with us in a 

908
00:28:26,633 --> 00:28:28,966
strategy. Corrosion with no 

909
00:28:28,966 --> 00:28:29,933
multilateral engagement, which 

910
00:28:29,933 --> 00:28:31,400
means the question is something 

911
00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:33,267
like rebuilding Syria. We’re 

912
00:28:33,267 --> 00:28:33,900
not going to have a meaningful 

913
00:28:33,900 --> 00:28:36,000
forum to discuss that unless we 

914
00:28:36,000 --> 00:28:36,800
are able to roll back the 

915
00:28:36,800 --> 00:28:37,732
posture that we’re in now and 

916
00:28:37,732 --> 00:28:39,633
we’re not engaging 

917
00:28:39,633 --> 00:28:40,367
diplomatically in a way that 

918
00:28:40,367 --> 00:28:43,666
makes that feasible. and you’re 

919
00:28:43,666 --> 00:28:44,832
right about this as well as in 

920
00:28:44,832 --> 00:28:48,133
the sense that you are. 

921
00:28:48,133 --> 00:28:49,367
pointing out that we’re on the 

922
00:28:49,367 --> 00:28:50,700
one hand, we’re talking about 

923
00:28:50,700 --> 00:28:53,233
the the rules based. global 

924
00:28:53,233 --> 00:28:54,399
order, but then we have 

925
00:28:54,399 --> 00:28:55,766
secondary Sanctions and just to 

926
00:28:55,766 --> 00:28:58,466
further explain. To the 

927
00:28:58,466 --> 00:29:01,599
audience if you are a Spanish 

928
00:29:01,599 --> 00:29:03,733
citizen, usually the laws that 

929
00:29:03,733 --> 00:29:05,366
apply to you are the laws that 

930
00:29:05,366 --> 00:29:07,899
are enacted by the Spanish 

931
00:29:07,899 --> 00:29:09,400
parliament that you have a 

932
00:29:09,400 --> 00:29:11,832
chance of electing or unelected 

933
00:29:11,832 --> 00:29:13,700
here now we’re in a situation 

934
00:29:13,700 --> 00:29:15,167
in which you have those laws, 

935
00:29:15,167 --> 00:29:17,099
but in addition to that, you’re 

936
00:29:17,099 --> 00:29:18,833
also going to have to abide by 

937
00:29:18,833 --> 00:29:22,566
American laws that will apply 

938
00:29:22,566 --> 00:29:23,667
to the territory you’re living 

939
00:29:23,667 --> 00:29:25,000
in and you’re not living in the 

940
00:29:25,000 --> 00:29:26,400
United States because now 

941
00:29:26,400 --> 00:29:27,200
suddenly the United States is 

942
00:29:27,200 --> 00:29:30,967
is. In law for the entire globe 

943
00:29:30,967 --> 00:29:32,933
and this is now more or less 

944
00:29:32,933 --> 00:29:35,933
become almost accepted and but 

945
00:29:35,933 --> 00:29:37,766
it is in complete contradiction 

946
00:29:37,766 --> 00:29:39,000
with the idea of having a rules 

947
00:29:39,000 --> 00:29:41,466
based order because it’s can’t 

948
00:29:41,466 --> 00:29:42,566
just be one country that is 

949
00:29:42,566 --> 00:29:44,133
setting the rules for the 

950
00:29:44,133 --> 00:29:45,500
entire world. Let me jump in 

951
00:29:45,500 --> 00:29:49,000
your truth because because I 

952
00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:49,700
can give you a concrete example 

953
00:29:49,700 --> 00:29:51,566
of this in Syria, which is 

954
00:29:51,566 --> 00:29:53,600
trying to rebuild its electric 

955
00:29:53,600 --> 00:29:56,000
grid by by developing two 

956
00:29:56,000 --> 00:29:58,799
electric generation plants and. 

957
00:29:58,799 --> 00:30:00,567
This friend who’s in the 

958
00:30:00,567 --> 00:30:02,332
electric business in Syria and 

959
00:30:02,332 --> 00:30:04,633
Syrian wrote to me and said the 

960
00:30:04,633 --> 00:30:06,433
the the to Shred extension, 

961
00:30:06,433 --> 00:30:08,366
which was one was contracted 

962
00:30:08,366 --> 00:30:12,433
with an Indian company. That 

963
00:30:12,433 --> 00:30:15,400
company. transferred money for 

964
00:30:15,400 --> 00:30:19,033
us to resume work and 25% of 

965
00:30:19,033 --> 00:30:20,499
this plant was built, but then 

966
00:30:20,499 --> 00:30:22,900
it came to a screeching halt 

967
00:30:22,900 --> 00:30:23,966
because they couldn’t continue 

968
00:30:23,966 --> 00:30:24,966
because of the Caesar 

969
00:30:24,966 --> 00:30:26,000
Sanctions, which would have 

970
00:30:26,000 --> 00:30:27,233
been secondary Sanctions on 

971
00:30:27,233 --> 00:30:29,032
them and to say stopped doing 

972
00:30:29,032 --> 00:30:31,400
any sending any any money or 

973
00:30:31,400 --> 00:30:32,966
anything else and that and that 

974
00:30:32,966 --> 00:30:35,099
this stopped in a second plan 

975
00:30:35,099 --> 00:30:36,433
and Dez, which is a big 

976
00:30:36,433 --> 00:30:38,000
provincial capital which needs 

977
00:30:38,000 --> 00:30:39,933
electricity gas prom bank had 

978
00:30:39,933 --> 00:30:44,834
lent. And issued the letter of 

979
00:30:44,834 --> 00:30:47,166
credit for developing a big 

980
00:30:47,166 --> 00:30:48,799
plan and that came to a 

981
00:30:48,799 --> 00:30:49,700
screeching halt because they 

982
00:30:49,700 --> 00:30:52,200
don’t want to be sanctioned by 

983
00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:53,700
the United States and so these 

984
00:30:53,700 --> 00:30:55,533
two projects which we’re going 

985
00:30:55,533 --> 00:30:56,999
to bring vital electricity to 

986
00:30:56,999 --> 00:30:58,566
allow schools to work and so 

987
00:30:58,566 --> 00:31:02,366
forth came to a halt and I can 

988
00:31:02,366 --> 00:31:03,800
even use the example of my 

989
00:31:03,800 --> 00:31:07,367
brother in law. Became more 

990
00:31:07,367 --> 00:31:09,300
dependent on the government. 

991
00:31:09,300 --> 00:31:11,267
because of these sanctions, you 

992
00:31:11,267 --> 00:31:13,599
know the idea is that sanctions 

993
00:31:13,599 --> 00:31:15,066
will force Syrian people to 

994
00:31:15,066 --> 00:31:16,567
hate their government and 

995
00:31:16,567 --> 00:31:17,867
they’ll rise up and overthrow 

996
00:31:17,867 --> 00:31:19,700
it or put pressure on it to do 

997
00:31:19,700 --> 00:31:21,866
something. but the example of 

998
00:31:21,866 --> 00:31:23,466
my brother in law who has a 

999
00:31:23,466 --> 00:31:25,933
small plastic factory, got some 

1000
00:31:25,933 --> 00:31:27,233
machines that make plastic bags 

1001
00:31:27,233 --> 00:31:30,000
and he had AA plant in 

1002
00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:31,467
cartoons, he couldn’t get any 

1003
00:31:31,467 --> 00:31:33,067
electricity and he couldn’t run 

1004
00:31:33,067 --> 00:31:36,566
his plan and Generators there’s 

1005
00:31:36,566 --> 00:31:38,400
no oil to run generators and it 

1006
00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:39,532
was very expensive to do it 

1007
00:31:39,532 --> 00:31:41,467
wouldn’t wouldn’t allow them to 

1008
00:31:41,467 --> 00:31:43,433
produce the bags so he moved 

1009
00:31:43,433 --> 00:31:45,900
his machines to a small plant 

1010
00:31:45,900 --> 00:31:48,533
in lat, which is a free trade 

1011
00:31:48,533 --> 00:31:49,167
zone supported by the 

1012
00:31:49,167 --> 00:31:51,266
government, which gets more 

1013
00:31:51,266 --> 00:31:52,633
electricity it’s prioritized 

1014
00:31:52,633 --> 00:31:54,000
and subsidized by the Syrian 

1015
00:31:54,000 --> 00:31:56,500
government. so he’s completely 

1016
00:31:56,500 --> 00:31:58,933
dependent on this electricity 

1017
00:31:58,933 --> 00:32:00,000
supplied by the Syrian 

1018
00:32:00,000 --> 00:32:03,133
government now. You know that’s 

1019
00:32:03,133 --> 00:32:04,899
what’s happening to everybody. 

1020
00:32:04,899 --> 00:32:07,833
everybody’s lining up wheat. Is 

1021
00:32:07,833 --> 00:32:10,933
given as a subsidized price 

1022
00:32:10,933 --> 00:32:14,467
through government stores and 

1023
00:32:14,467 --> 00:32:15,133
everybody who used to buy their 

1024
00:32:15,133 --> 00:32:16,333
bread from the private 

1025
00:32:16,333 --> 00:32:17,966
bakeries. no longer can go 

1026
00:32:17,966 --> 00:32:18,966
there because they can’t afford 

1027
00:32:18,966 --> 00:32:20,467
it so they have to line up at 

1028
00:32:20,467 --> 00:32:22,500
government bakeries. They’re 

1029
00:32:22,500 --> 00:32:24,033
totally dependent on the 

1030
00:32:24,033 --> 00:32:25,667
government the government’s 

1031
00:32:25,667 --> 00:32:27,967
budget for this year, 40% of it 

1032
00:32:27,967 --> 00:32:30,667
goes to subsidizing electricity 

1033
00:32:30,667 --> 00:32:33,599
and bread and the people are 

1034
00:32:33,599 --> 00:32:34,600
eating out of the hands of the 

1035
00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:35,367
government. They can’t afford 

1036
00:32:35,367 --> 00:32:37,400
to buy it and so. These 

1037
00:32:37,400 --> 00:32:38,966
sanctions the logic of the 

1038
00:32:38,966 --> 00:32:41,033
sanctions is just it’s just 

1039
00:32:41,033 --> 00:32:43,000
crazy so and Josh we have a 

1040
00:32:43,000 --> 00:32:44,333
question from the audience. 

1041
00:32:44,333 --> 00:32:46,800
Paul Rodriguez talks about ask 

1042
00:32:46,800 --> 00:32:48,033
about. Can you a Sanctions of 

1043
00:32:48,033 --> 00:32:49,066
Cuba the longest in time and 

1044
00:32:49,066 --> 00:32:50,332
more comprehensive than extra 

1045
00:32:50,332 --> 00:32:53,200
territorial be ethically and 

1046
00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:55,433
morally justified and and I 

1047
00:32:55,433 --> 00:32:57,567
want to just get a quick take 

1048
00:32:57,567 --> 00:32:58,967
from Y’all. Do we have examples 

1049
00:32:58,967 --> 00:33:02,300
in which all of this ultimately 

1050
00:33:02,300 --> 00:33:03,900
nevertheless leads to a good 

1051
00:33:03,900 --> 00:33:05,333
place because the regimes fall 

1052
00:33:05,333 --> 00:33:08,834
in a democratic. Emerges and 

1053
00:33:08,834 --> 00:33:10,833
and people live more or less 

1054
00:33:10,833 --> 00:33:12,533
happily ever after so, you know 

1055
00:33:12,533 --> 00:33:14,266
is there a situation in which 

1056
00:33:14,266 --> 00:33:15,500
actually you know the 

1057
00:33:15,500 --> 00:33:16,800
objectives can be achieved. So 

1058
00:33:16,800 --> 00:33:18,900
this is a price that is worth 

1059
00:33:18,900 --> 00:33:20,667
paying well, You Know, II 

1060
00:33:20,667 --> 00:33:22,000
should really defer to us. I 

1061
00:33:22,000 --> 00:33:23,433
will to Peter because you know 

1062
00:33:23,433 --> 00:33:24,500
there should be a limitation 

1063
00:33:24,500 --> 00:33:27,300
for 2 years on sanctions 

1064
00:33:27,300 --> 00:33:28,733
because if it doesn’t work if 

1065
00:33:28,733 --> 00:33:29,400
the team’s hanging in there 

1066
00:33:29,400 --> 00:33:32,800
like North Korea Iran Cuba, you 

1067
00:33:32,800 --> 00:33:34,400
could go down the list. 

1068
00:33:34,400 --> 00:33:36,966
Venezuela they’re not going to. 

1069
00:33:36,966 --> 00:33:40,633
The object of changing the 

1070
00:33:40,633 --> 00:33:42,200
regime or changing regime 

1071
00:33:42,200 --> 00:33:44,466
behavior once it’s proven to 

1072
00:33:44,466 --> 00:33:45,566
fail. all you’re doing is 

1073
00:33:45,566 --> 00:33:49,233
starving people. Okay. Sorry, I 

1074
00:33:49,233 --> 00:33:51,066
didn’t know if I wanted to jump 

1075
00:33:51,066 --> 00:33:52,700
in I’ll come in after you 

1076
00:33:52,700 --> 00:33:55,666
Peter. Yeah, it’s it’s really 

1077
00:33:55,666 --> 00:33:56,966
interesting to think about 

1078
00:33:56,966 --> 00:33:59,299
where given that that for so 

1079
00:33:59,299 --> 00:34:00,866
many years these sanctions 

1080
00:34:00,866 --> 00:34:03,432
policies have been so 

1081
00:34:03,432 --> 00:34:04,800
ineffective and that it’s very 

1082
00:34:04,800 --> 00:34:06,000
very very difficult to find any 

1083
00:34:06,000 --> 00:34:08,366
I mean you can point to you. 

1084
00:34:08,366 --> 00:34:09,100
Can you can point to South 

1085
00:34:09,100 --> 00:34:11,067
Africa? You know, which in some 

1086
00:34:11,067 --> 00:34:12,200
ways is is is the kind of 

1087
00:34:12,200 --> 00:34:13,067
exception that proves the 

1088
00:34:13,067 --> 00:34:13,832
rules, but it’s a very very 

1089
00:34:13,832 --> 00:34:15,500
different case right. It’s not 

1090
00:34:15,500 --> 00:34:16,933
a case where the US is dealing 

1091
00:34:16,933 --> 00:34:17,832
with a with a geopolitical 

1092
00:34:17,832 --> 00:34:19,100
adversary. It’s a case where 

1093
00:34:19,100 --> 00:34:20,400
the US is dealing with a 

1094
00:34:20,400 --> 00:34:21,132
country that had been. it’s 

1095
00:34:21,132 --> 00:34:21,767
essentially America and 

1096
00:34:21,767 --> 00:34:23,432
supported for a long time. But 

1097
00:34:23,432 --> 00:34:25,067
because of popular pressure 

1098
00:34:25,067 --> 00:34:26,766
around the world in the United 

1099
00:34:26,766 --> 00:34:28,500
States and inside South Africa, 

1100
00:34:28,500 --> 00:34:30,934
the US government was very very 

1101
00:34:30,934 --> 00:34:31,466
reluctantly forced to cut ties 

1102
00:34:31,466 --> 00:34:33,233
with the regime that it wanted. 

1103
00:34:33,233 --> 00:34:34,900
so the question is what is the 

1104
00:34:34,900 --> 00:34:35,699
template That suggests that 

1105
00:34:35,699 --> 00:34:37,200
this is the right model and I’m 

1106
00:34:37,200 --> 00:34:39,100
just going to throw out 

1107
00:34:39,100 --> 00:34:39,933
something. I don’t know if I 

1108
00:34:39,933 --> 00:34:41,199
could prove it. I think a lot 

1109
00:34:41,199 --> 00:34:43,399
of it comes from this mythic 

1110
00:34:43,399 --> 00:34:44,699
notion of how the US brought 

1111
00:34:44,699 --> 00:34:46,000
down the Soviet Union. You know 

1112
00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:49,067
we have these two big the very 

1113
00:34:49,067 --> 00:34:50,100
little of American foreign 

1114
00:34:50,100 --> 00:34:53,000
policy is actually based on. 

1115
00:34:53,000 --> 00:34:54,000
America’s experience with the 

1116
00:34:54,000 --> 00:34:55,334
developing world because 

1117
00:34:55,334 --> 00:34:56,300
America’s developing the 

1118
00:34:56,300 --> 00:34:57,133
developing world is just 

1119
00:34:57,133 --> 00:34:58,666
impossible to integrate into 

1120
00:34:58,666 --> 00:35:00,567
the exceptionalism narrative, 

1121
00:35:00,567 --> 00:35:01,832
we have about us as the 

1122
00:35:01,832 --> 00:35:02,767
champions of democracy and 

1123
00:35:02,767 --> 00:35:04,967
freedom so the two stories that 

1124
00:35:04,967 --> 00:35:05,833
are told again and again and 

1125
00:35:05,833 --> 00:35:07,366
again are that we defeated the 

1126
00:35:07,366 --> 00:35:08,866
Nazis by force, but we didn’t 

1127
00:35:08,866 --> 00:35:10,399
go to war with the the Soviets 

1128
00:35:10,399 --> 00:35:12,300
right. so what is the dominant 

1129
00:35:12,300 --> 00:35:13,000
narrative inside the Republican 

1130
00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:14,167
Party and I think even in much 

1131
00:35:14,167 --> 00:35:14,932
of the mainstream Democratic 

1132
00:35:14,932 --> 00:35:16,833
Party well, it’s basically that 

1133
00:35:16,833 --> 00:35:18,400
we were really really tough on 

1134
00:35:18,400 --> 00:35:20,600
them. We we you know and and 

1135
00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:22,466
especially again Republican. 

1136
00:35:22,466 --> 00:35:23,933
With Ronald Reagan Rights 

1137
00:35:23,933 --> 00:35:24,966
Ronald Reagan really really 

1138
00:35:24,966 --> 00:35:26,366
pushed them up against the wall 

1139
00:35:26,366 --> 00:35:29,933
and they cracked and so I think 

1140
00:35:29,933 --> 00:35:30,467
this you know without being 

1141
00:35:30,467 --> 00:35:33,166
stated is has became a kind of 

1142
00:35:33,166 --> 00:35:34,467
a cold war template for all 

1143
00:35:34,467 --> 00:35:36,000
these little mini Soviet unions 

1144
00:35:36,000 --> 00:35:38,200
in the axis of evil that we 

1145
00:35:38,200 --> 00:35:39,700
were now going to face now that 

1146
00:35:39,700 --> 00:35:42,000
the big enemy was was no longer 

1147
00:35:42,000 --> 00:35:44,000
It was total nonsense right I 

1148
00:35:44,000 --> 00:35:46,133
mean, actually what the most 

1149
00:35:46,133 --> 00:35:47,466
significant thing that Ronald 

1150
00:35:47,466 --> 00:35:48,267
Reagan did to help facilitate 

1151
00:35:48,267 --> 00:35:49,866
the end of Soviet control in 

1152
00:35:49,866 --> 00:35:52,033
eastern Europe was to adopt. 

1153
00:35:52,033 --> 00:35:53,534
Radically pro Gorbachev 

1154
00:35:53,534 --> 00:35:56,799
position starting and in 1984, 

1155
00:35:56,799 --> 00:35:59,633
1985, and basically make 

1156
00:35:59,633 --> 00:36:00,800
Gorbachev job easier 

1157
00:36:00,800 --> 00:36:01,533
politically after it became 

1158
00:36:01,533 --> 00:36:02,733
clear the Soviet union was 

1159
00:36:02,733 --> 00:36:03,867
massively overextend and it 

1160
00:36:03,867 --> 00:36:05,367
couldn’t do this, but I think 

1161
00:36:05,367 --> 00:36:07,500
that becomes in some ways the 

1162
00:36:07,500 --> 00:36:08,966
template for this and part of 

1163
00:36:08,966 --> 00:36:10,600
what I think we are reaping the 

1164
00:36:10,600 --> 00:36:13,399
the cost of is the fact that 

1165
00:36:13,399 --> 00:36:14,466
that progressives and Democrats 

1166
00:36:14,466 --> 00:36:16,900
in the United States never have 

1167
00:36:16,900 --> 00:36:18,567
really successfully contested 

1168
00:36:18,567 --> 00:36:19,966
the narrative that came out of 

1169
00:36:19,966 --> 00:36:22,899
the Cold War. That then became 

1170
00:36:22,899 --> 00:36:24,000
a kind of a template for 

1171
00:36:24,000 --> 00:36:26,432
America to prove me much more 

1172
00:36:26,432 --> 00:36:27,333
aggressive when we didn’t have 

1173
00:36:27,333 --> 00:36:29,533
a rival superpower for these 

1174
00:36:29,533 --> 00:36:30,733
couple of decades where we 

1175
00:36:30,733 --> 00:36:32,000
basically just started, you 

1176
00:36:32,000 --> 00:36:34,499
know amassing sanctions against 

1177
00:36:34,499 --> 00:36:35,933
upon Sanctions on our 

1178
00:36:35,933 --> 00:36:38,633
adversaries. I see you in yeah 

1179
00:36:38,633 --> 00:36:41,033
I would endorse that hypothesis 

1180
00:36:41,033 --> 00:36:42,966
of course again without being 

1181
00:36:42,966 --> 00:36:44,133
able to demonstrate it 

1182
00:36:44,133 --> 00:36:45,200
empirically. but the thing that 

1183
00:36:45,200 --> 00:36:46,966
I we can point to is the 

1184
00:36:46,966 --> 00:36:48,799
explosion of sanctions regimes 

1185
00:36:48,799 --> 00:36:51,000
in the 1990s and that’s. And 

1186
00:36:51,000 --> 00:36:52,133
referred to as the sanctions 

1187
00:36:52,133 --> 00:36:53,200
decade so in the immediate 

1188
00:36:53,200 --> 00:36:54,933
post, Cold war period, the sort 

1189
00:36:54,933 --> 00:36:57,699
of confidence that these. 

1190
00:36:57,699 --> 00:36:58,667
strategies we’re going to 

1191
00:36:58,667 --> 00:37:00,367
attain objectives to your 

1192
00:37:00,367 --> 00:37:01,400
question. Of course, they never 

1193
00:37:01,400 --> 00:37:02,799
have. There’s no absolutely no 

1194
00:37:02,799 --> 00:37:04,300
empirical evidence of all of 

1195
00:37:04,300 --> 00:37:05,533
our relationship between 

1196
00:37:05,533 --> 00:37:08,334
comprehensive Sanctions and the 

1197
00:37:08,334 --> 00:37:09,332
attaining the objective of 

1198
00:37:09,332 --> 00:37:11,100
regime change directly that 

1199
00:37:11,100 --> 00:37:12,533
every time has you know been 

1200
00:37:12,533 --> 00:37:14,333
comprehensive Sanctions 

1201
00:37:14,333 --> 00:37:15,899
followed by some form of 

1202
00:37:15,899 --> 00:37:16,700
military intervention that has 

1203
00:37:16,700 --> 00:37:18,000
resulted in regime change, 

1204
00:37:18,000 --> 00:37:18,900
which is to say the toppling of 

1205
00:37:18,900 --> 00:37:20,600
a government and Of course, 

1206
00:37:20,600 --> 00:37:22,000
attached to that military 

1207
00:37:22,000 --> 00:37:23,933
intervention is the absolute 

1208
00:37:23,933 --> 00:37:25,400
incapacity that the United 

1209
00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:26,100
States has demonstrated over 

1210
00:37:26,100 --> 00:37:28,400
and over again of ever then 

1211
00:37:28,400 --> 00:37:29,466
establishing effective 

1212
00:37:29,466 --> 00:37:30,000
governance again in the 

1213
00:37:30,000 --> 00:37:31,000
territory where that regime 

1214
00:37:31,000 --> 00:37:32,500
change occurred, but the regime 

1215
00:37:32,500 --> 00:37:33,800
change itself does not occur as 

1216
00:37:33,800 --> 00:37:35,267
a consequence of sanctions and 

1217
00:37:35,267 --> 00:37:36,866
the reason for this is exactly 

1218
00:37:36,866 --> 00:37:38,000
what Joshua pointed to which is 

1219
00:37:38,000 --> 00:37:40,167
was true in Iraq, Iraq can be 

1220
00:37:40,167 --> 00:37:40,933
the template for how we think 

1221
00:37:40,933 --> 00:37:41,966
about this more generally, 

1222
00:37:41,966 --> 00:37:44,132
which is first of all sanctions 

1223
00:37:44,132 --> 00:37:45,833
that we present a starving 

1224
00:37:45,833 --> 00:37:47,033
Saddam or starving Assad are 

1225
00:37:47,033 --> 00:37:48,000
actually a form of collective 

1226
00:37:48,000 --> 00:37:50,866
punishment that are starving. 

1227
00:37:50,866 --> 00:37:52,267
Population because of the 

1228
00:37:52,267 --> 00:37:53,466
consequences of the embargo 

1229
00:37:53,466 --> 00:37:54,966
that civilian population 

1230
00:37:54,966 --> 00:37:56,599
becomes far more dependent on 

1231
00:37:56,599 --> 00:37:58,333
the regime, we claim we’re 

1232
00:37:58,333 --> 00:37:59,867
seeking to dispatch and as a 

1233
00:37:59,867 --> 00:38:01,433
consequence that regime’s 

1234
00:38:01,433 --> 00:38:03,066
capacity to control its society 

1235
00:38:03,066 --> 00:38:05,433
is enhanced by our sanctions 

1236
00:38:05,433 --> 00:38:06,833
that are allegedly designed to 

1237
00:38:06,833 --> 00:38:08,367
overthrow that regime. so that 

1238
00:38:08,367 --> 00:38:10,000
logic the counter intuitive 

1239
00:38:10,000 --> 00:38:11,700
actual effect of the sanctions 

1240
00:38:11,700 --> 00:38:13,366
is to entrench. so Sadam 

1241
00:38:13,366 --> 00:38:14,967
Hussein may well have had a 

1242
00:38:14,967 --> 00:38:16,467
longer duration and power 

1243
00:38:16,467 --> 00:38:17,966
following that his defeat in 

1244
00:38:17,966 --> 00:38:20,333
1991. As a consequence of 12 

1245
00:38:20,333 --> 00:38:21,866
years of sanctions and indeed 

1246
00:38:21,866 --> 00:38:23,367
his regime hard liners within 

1247
00:38:23,367 --> 00:38:24,900
his regime may have become 

1248
00:38:24,900 --> 00:38:27,033
parasitic dependent on those 

1249
00:38:27,033 --> 00:38:28,432
sanctions in order to run an 

1250
00:38:28,432 --> 00:38:29,033
effective black market 

1251
00:38:29,033 --> 00:38:30,199
controlled goods that are 

1252
00:38:30,199 --> 00:38:31,700
coming into the country and so 

1253
00:38:31,700 --> 00:38:32,700
forth and we see this effect 

1254
00:38:32,700 --> 00:38:34,000
again and again in countries 

1255
00:38:34,000 --> 00:38:35,400
that are the target of these 

1256
00:38:35,400 --> 00:38:36,699
kinds of sanctions they become 

1257
00:38:36,699 --> 00:38:39,433
in a sense of with regimes that 

1258
00:38:39,433 --> 00:38:40,600
control all of the resources 

1259
00:38:40,600 --> 00:38:42,167
that are within the territory 

1260
00:38:42,167 --> 00:38:44,432
or disproportionate amount and 

1261
00:38:44,432 --> 00:38:45,233
control much of the private 

1262
00:38:45,233 --> 00:38:46,833
sector activity so that 

1263
00:38:46,833 --> 00:38:48,467
distinction begins to collapse. 

1264
00:38:48,467 --> 00:38:50,600
A very resource that the US 

1265
00:38:50,600 --> 00:38:52,533
typically presents itself as 

1266
00:38:52,533 --> 00:38:53,300
supporting middle class and 

1267
00:38:53,300 --> 00:38:55,567
countries civil society as 

1268
00:38:55,567 --> 00:38:56,933
rising up is actually stamped 

1269
00:38:56,933 --> 00:38:58,000
out and destroyed and and 

1270
00:38:58,000 --> 00:38:59,400
that’s the effect of sanctions. 

1271
00:38:59,400 --> 00:39:00,933
Now, you can have a situation 

1272
00:39:00,933 --> 00:39:02,300
like Syria where you have so 

1273
00:39:02,300 --> 00:39:04,466
many causal factors. it’s it’s 

1274
00:39:04,466 --> 00:39:06,033
basically impossible to sort of 

1275
00:39:06,033 --> 00:39:06,633
disengage a causal story about 

1276
00:39:06,633 --> 00:39:09,066
how much Sanctions versus civil 

1277
00:39:09,066 --> 00:39:10,933
war versus decisions by the 

1278
00:39:10,933 --> 00:39:13,000
government etcetera really 

1279
00:39:13,000 --> 00:39:14,000
responsible for immunization, 

1280
00:39:14,000 --> 00:39:15,767
but there are other places 

1281
00:39:15,767 --> 00:39:17,033
where we can see the direct and 

1282
00:39:17,033 --> 00:39:20,832
you. Effects of sanctions, 

1283
00:39:20,832 --> 00:39:23,300
including the prolonging of 

1284
00:39:23,300 --> 00:39:24,832
regime duration, and I think 

1285
00:39:24,832 --> 00:39:25,834
Cuba is a great example of 

1286
00:39:25,834 --> 00:39:26,432
that, which is a question that 

1287
00:39:26,432 --> 00:39:28,933
you began us with on a bigger 

1288
00:39:28,933 --> 00:39:30,167
issue, you know is is really 

1289
00:39:30,167 --> 00:39:31,967
amazing that the United States 

1290
00:39:31,967 --> 00:39:34,000
and the 50s and 60s try to 

1291
00:39:34,000 --> 00:39:37,433
fight. Tyranny and communist 

1292
00:39:37,433 --> 00:39:39,899
regimes with Marshall Plan .4 

1293
00:39:39,899 --> 00:39:41,666
money development and that was 

1294
00:39:41,666 --> 00:39:44,000
the that was the wisdom of 

1295
00:39:44,000 --> 00:39:45,666
America and why America became 

1296
00:39:45,666 --> 00:39:47,967
so appealing to much of the 

1297
00:39:47,967 --> 00:39:49,700
world because it was considered 

1298
00:39:49,700 --> 00:39:51,933
free trade development. Get 

1299
00:39:51,933 --> 00:39:54,899
rich. today. We’ve almost 

1300
00:39:54,899 --> 00:39:56,266
reversed that when you look at 

1301
00:39:56,266 --> 00:39:57,633
the number of countries that we 

1302
00:39:57,633 --> 00:39:59,400
are starving and that we are 

1303
00:39:59,400 --> 00:40:00,967
have sanctions on and we are 

1304
00:40:00,967 --> 00:40:02,500
punishing we’ve turned into the 

1305
00:40:02,500 --> 00:40:04,033
punishing country and and China 

1306
00:40:04,033 --> 00:40:05,133
is going to eat our lunch 

1307
00:40:05,133 --> 00:40:08,400
because it’s. Just with the 

1308
00:40:08,400 --> 00:40:09,566
United States used to offer in 

1309
00:40:09,566 --> 00:40:11,832
the 1950s, which is development 

1310
00:40:11,832 --> 00:40:14,533
aid and with few questions 

1311
00:40:14,533 --> 00:40:16,767
asked and no theoretically now, 

1312
00:40:16,767 --> 00:40:18,433
of course, China will probably 

1313
00:40:18,433 --> 00:40:19,833
develop into Imperial Imperial 

1314
00:40:19,833 --> 00:40:22,332
country as America has in its 

1315
00:40:22,332 --> 00:40:24,467
turn, but the point is today. 

1316
00:40:24,467 --> 00:40:26,633
It’s very stark. How America 

1317
00:40:26,633 --> 00:40:27,967
has changed from being a 

1318
00:40:27,967 --> 00:40:28,666
country that supports the 

1319
00:40:28,666 --> 00:40:33,399
middle class around the world. 

1320
00:40:33,399 --> 00:40:35,332
to become richer and happier in 

1321
00:40:35,332 --> 00:40:37,967
theory. Rather than one that 

1322
00:40:37,967 --> 00:40:40,333
punishes them and and he uses 

1323
00:40:40,333 --> 00:40:43,866
this very difficult regimes. 

1324
00:40:43,866 --> 00:40:47,900
so. kind of summing up here we 

1325
00:40:47,900 --> 00:40:50,900
see that when when impose Broad 

1326
00:40:50,900 --> 00:40:52,532
Based Economic Sanctions, we 

1327
00:40:52,532 --> 00:40:55,032
have a less of a likelihood of 

1328
00:40:55,032 --> 00:40:56,432
a country moving in a 

1329
00:40:56,432 --> 00:40:57,500
democratic direction as a to 

1330
00:40:57,500 --> 00:40:59,433
point it out. Peter you’ve 

1331
00:40:59,433 --> 00:41:01,666
written about how it actually 

1332
00:41:01,666 --> 00:41:03,966
tends to break down norms and 

1333
00:41:03,966 --> 00:41:05,499
laws and countries the the 

1334
00:41:05,499 --> 00:41:06,266
targets countries and and in 

1335
00:41:06,266 --> 00:41:08,233
the the long run, it’s really 

1336
00:41:08,233 --> 00:41:09,566
difficult to reestablish those 

1337
00:41:09,566 --> 00:41:11,034
nos. you actually get more 

1338
00:41:11,034 --> 00:41:12,033
lawlessness, which again is 

1339
00:41:12,033 --> 00:41:13,766
really not conducive towards 

1340
00:41:13,766 --> 00:41:16,000
having a building a Democratic 

1341
00:41:16,000 --> 00:41:17,667
society. We see that the human 

1342
00:41:17,667 --> 00:41:18,333
rights situation tends to 

1343
00:41:18,333 --> 00:41:19,667
become much worse, not only 

1344
00:41:19,667 --> 00:41:21,600
because the population is more. 

1345
00:41:21,600 --> 00:41:23,200
On the regime and the vision of 

1346
00:41:23,200 --> 00:41:25,033
the repressive in order to 

1347
00:41:25,033 --> 00:41:26,933
retain control, but also 

1348
00:41:26,933 --> 00:41:28,000
because of the direct effects 

1349
00:41:28,000 --> 00:41:29,466
of the sanctions on the 

1350
00:41:29,466 --> 00:41:31,233
population, one aspect of it 

1351
00:41:31,233 --> 00:41:33,400
that is not often times 

1352
00:41:33,400 --> 00:41:35,766
addressed is that this still 

1353
00:41:35,766 --> 00:41:37,533
passes because we believe that 

1354
00:41:37,533 --> 00:41:39,099
sanctions is an alternative to 

1355
00:41:39,099 --> 00:41:40,799
war as both Peter and Ashley 

1356
00:41:40,799 --> 00:41:42,566
has pointed out reality is that 

1357
00:41:42,566 --> 00:41:44,800
there’s studies that show that 

1358
00:41:44,800 --> 00:41:46,899
as countries impose sanctions 

1359
00:41:46,899 --> 00:41:49,000
it actually increases the 

1360
00:41:49,000 --> 00:41:50,200
likelihood of a military 

1361
00:41:50,200 --> 00:41:53,033
conference. Because of the 

1362
00:41:53,033 --> 00:41:54,399
signaling Impact and the fact 

1363
00:41:54,399 --> 00:41:56,300
that you enter into a negative 

1364
00:41:56,300 --> 00:41:58,832
cycle that becomes extremely 

1365
00:41:58,832 --> 00:41:59,833
difficult to withdraw yourself 

1366
00:41:59,833 --> 00:42:01,166
and particularly for democratic 

1367
00:42:01,166 --> 00:42:02,900
countries, so not only does it 

1368
00:42:02,900 --> 00:42:04,733
not achieve those humanitarian 

1369
00:42:04,733 --> 00:42:05,967
objects. It’s actually 

1370
00:42:05,967 --> 00:42:08,400
increases the likelihood of war 

1371
00:42:08,400 --> 00:42:10,200
itself and it it raises the 

1372
00:42:10,200 --> 00:42:12,533
question that with all of this 

1373
00:42:12,533 --> 00:42:14,100
can we have a conversation. I 

1374
00:42:14,100 --> 00:42:15,866
know many people in the in the 

1375
00:42:15,866 --> 00:42:17,866
Q and a have asked us what are 

1376
00:42:17,866 --> 00:42:19,333
actually the real objectives or 

1377
00:42:19,333 --> 00:42:23,000
alternative. For sanctions and 

1378
00:42:23,000 --> 00:42:24,833
I want to throw out the faces 

1379
00:42:24,833 --> 00:42:26,000
and I’ll get your reaction to 

1380
00:42:26,000 --> 00:42:28,667
it to me, it seems like often 

1381
00:42:28,667 --> 00:42:30,633
times Sanctions are actually 

1382
00:42:30,633 --> 00:42:32,967
imposed in order to cement the 

1383
00:42:32,967 --> 00:42:35,433
conflict. contain in the long 

1384
00:42:35,433 --> 00:42:38,199
run a country and and slowly, 

1385
00:42:38,199 --> 00:42:39,266
but surely destroying it 

1386
00:42:39,266 --> 00:42:41,467
because you get a favorable 

1387
00:42:41,467 --> 00:42:43,700
balance of power out of that 

1388
00:42:43,700 --> 00:42:44,834
outcome. Now you pretend that 

1389
00:42:44,834 --> 00:42:46,200
it’s for human rights, you 

1390
00:42:46,200 --> 00:42:46,933
pretend that it’s because you 

1391
00:42:46,933 --> 00:42:48,466
want to get rid of the regime, 

1392
00:42:48,466 --> 00:42:49,267
but in reality you don’t care 

1393
00:42:49,267 --> 00:42:50,332
that much about that. you just 

1394
00:42:50,332 --> 00:42:52,334
want to keep that one country 

1395
00:42:52,334 --> 00:42:53,967
as destroyed as possible. Take 

1396
00:42:53,967 --> 00:42:54,832
the example of your, for 

1397
00:42:54,832 --> 00:42:56,800
instance, if it was seen as a. 

1398
00:42:56,800 --> 00:42:59,266
Saddam Hussein after both 

1399
00:42:59,266 --> 00:43:01,967
Sanctions and war even though 

1400
00:43:01,967 --> 00:43:03,500
democracy was never really 

1401
00:43:03,500 --> 00:43:04,967
achieved. John Bolton still 

1402
00:43:04,967 --> 00:43:05,966
views it as a major success 

1403
00:43:05,966 --> 00:43:07,400
because from his perspective he 

1404
00:43:07,400 --> 00:43:09,933
wanted to remove Iva from the 

1405
00:43:09,933 --> 00:43:11,333
geopolitical chess board and he 

1406
00:43:11,333 --> 00:43:13,099
did it was successful in that 

1407
00:43:13,099 --> 00:43:15,400
sense is this something that 

1408
00:43:15,400 --> 00:43:17,933
you think is just in the case 

1409
00:43:17,933 --> 00:43:19,399
of Iraq, perhaps in the case of 

1410
00:43:19,399 --> 00:43:20,866
Iran or do you think it’s more 

1411
00:43:20,866 --> 00:43:22,599
widely applicable as an 

1412
00:43:22,599 --> 00:43:24,732
alternative motivation and 

1413
00:43:24,732 --> 00:43:25,933
motivation that understandably 

1414
00:43:25,933 --> 00:43:26,766
politicians do not necessarily 

1415
00:43:26,766 --> 00:43:28,534
want to talk about but may 

1416
00:43:28,534 --> 00:43:30,499
actually be the key motivating 

1417
00:43:30,499 --> 00:43:32,933
factor behind these decisions. 

1418
00:43:32,933 --> 00:43:35,500
Yeah II think this is a this is 

1419
00:43:35,500 --> 00:43:38,067
an instrument by which United 

1420
00:43:38,067 --> 00:43:41,034
States kind of kneecaps 

1421
00:43:41,034 --> 00:43:42,467
countries that we believe could 

1422
00:43:42,467 --> 00:43:46,199
challenge. our our power 

1423
00:43:46,199 --> 00:43:48,567
influence interests in certain 

1424
00:43:48,567 --> 00:43:49,767
regions of the globe and and 

1425
00:43:49,767 --> 00:43:51,599
you know and this is so this is 

1426
00:43:51,599 --> 00:43:54,033
one instrument and the US has 

1427
00:43:54,033 --> 00:43:56,300
used many, you know since it 

1428
00:43:56,300 --> 00:43:58,033
became a world power of you 

1429
00:43:58,033 --> 00:43:59,066
know, one of the things that 

1430
00:43:59,066 --> 00:44:00,000
the United States did a lot 

1431
00:44:00,000 --> 00:44:01,966
during the Cold war was in Coos 

1432
00:44:01,966 --> 00:44:04,399
against governments that might. 

1433
00:44:04,399 --> 00:44:06,266
might kind of move outside of 

1434
00:44:06,266 --> 00:44:08,834
the orbit of of American power. 

1435
00:44:08,834 --> 00:44:10,533
My challenge economic interests 

1436
00:44:10,533 --> 00:44:12,666
that were that were that were 

1437
00:44:12,666 --> 00:44:13,633
powerful in the United States 

1438
00:44:13,633 --> 00:44:15,500
and and this is so this is 

1439
00:44:15,500 --> 00:44:17,866
another mechanism for for for 

1440
00:44:17,866 --> 00:44:21,033
doing that and and what and 

1441
00:44:21,033 --> 00:44:25,000
sometimes it’s. you know it. it 

1442
00:44:25,000 --> 00:44:28,600
has the. and sometimes you know 

1443
00:44:28,600 --> 00:44:29,200
it’s it’s also serves the 

1444
00:44:29,200 --> 00:44:30,500
interests of American allies 

1445
00:44:30,500 --> 00:44:31,866
that also have those interests 

1446
00:44:31,866 --> 00:44:33,467
right so in the Middle East, 

1447
00:44:33,467 --> 00:44:34,633
obviously America’s allies in 

1448
00:44:34,633 --> 00:44:36,200
the Gulf, the Saudis, the 

1449
00:44:36,200 --> 00:44:38,500
Emirates and Israel want. Iran 

1450
00:44:38,500 --> 00:44:41,300
to be weak and so the United 

1451
00:44:41,300 --> 00:44:42,500
the power of the United States 

1452
00:44:42,500 --> 00:44:44,566
in keeping Iran weak through 

1453
00:44:44,566 --> 00:44:46,500
the sanctions serves their 

1454
00:44:46,500 --> 00:44:49,000
interests as well. But what 

1455
00:44:49,000 --> 00:44:51,699
happens is that we we we don’t 

1456
00:44:51,699 --> 00:44:53,767
have a kind of a really I think 

1457
00:44:53,767 --> 00:44:56,033
honest discourse about that and 

1458
00:44:56,033 --> 00:44:57,333
so the the the language is 

1459
00:44:57,333 --> 00:44:59,567
often deployed is either a 

1460
00:44:59,567 --> 00:45:02,067
language of nuclear 

1461
00:45:02,067 --> 00:45:04,000
proliferation while of course, 

1462
00:45:04,000 --> 00:45:04,832
well, you know while we turn 

1463
00:45:04,832 --> 00:45:05,800
the other way you know when the 

1464
00:45:05,800 --> 00:45:07,833
countries that we’re we have. 

1465
00:45:07,833 --> 00:45:10,333
Better relationships with 

1466
00:45:10,333 --> 00:45:11,666
proliferate their nuclear 

1467
00:45:11,666 --> 00:45:12,500
weapons or other weapons of 

1468
00:45:12,500 --> 00:45:13,633
mass destruction, and then the 

1469
00:45:13,633 --> 00:45:15,400
other is the language of human 

1470
00:45:15,400 --> 00:45:17,332
rights, you know, but again the 

1471
00:45:17,332 --> 00:45:18,532
language of human rights really 

1472
00:45:18,532 --> 00:45:19,899
just doesn’t make any sense. I 

1473
00:45:19,899 --> 00:45:20,900
mean, yes, many of these 

1474
00:45:20,900 --> 00:45:22,366
regimes are really really 

1475
00:45:22,366 --> 00:45:24,966
despicable regimes right, but 

1476
00:45:24,966 --> 00:45:27,366
just the most the the the most 

1477
00:45:27,366 --> 00:45:29,299
the the the the most basic kind 

1478
00:45:29,299 --> 00:45:30,900
of almost childlike logic would 

1479
00:45:30,900 --> 00:45:32,966
be to suggest that that if if 

1480
00:45:32,966 --> 00:45:34,733
you want to if you want to 

1481
00:45:34,733 --> 00:45:35,967
reduce American complicity with 

1482
00:45:35,967 --> 00:45:37,799
human rights abuses. Right, the 

1483
00:45:37,799 --> 00:45:38,966
first thing you do, for 

1484
00:45:38,966 --> 00:45:40,999
instance, is stop selling 

1485
00:45:40,999 --> 00:45:42,466
weapons to governments that do 

1486
00:45:42,466 --> 00:45:44,000
terrible things right. I mean 

1487
00:45:44,000 --> 00:45:45,867
there we actually are actually 

1488
00:45:45,867 --> 00:45:47,099
it’s our weapons that are doing 

1489
00:45:47,099 --> 00:45:48,367
these terrible things these 

1490
00:45:48,367 --> 00:45:49,233
these these other regimes that 

1491
00:45:49,233 --> 00:45:50,867
adversaries are doing terrible 

1492
00:45:50,867 --> 00:45:52,732
things, but but we are not 

1493
00:45:52,732 --> 00:45:53,533
implicated in the same way 

1494
00:45:53,533 --> 00:45:54,433
because we’re not funding them. 

1495
00:45:54,433 --> 00:45:55,332
We’re not arming them right so 

1496
00:45:55,332 --> 00:45:57,533
it seems to me you know if it 

1497
00:45:57,533 --> 00:45:59,199
makes sense to at least make 

1498
00:45:59,199 --> 00:46:00,233
some effort to clean up your 

1499
00:46:00,233 --> 00:46:01,833
own house and yet many of the 

1500
00:46:01,833 --> 00:46:03,966
people who are the kind of most 

1501
00:46:03,966 --> 00:46:05,166
self righteous and moralistic 

1502
00:46:05,166 --> 00:46:07,400
about about. Sanctions policies 

1503
00:46:07,400 --> 00:46:08,467
because they talk about how 

1504
00:46:08,467 --> 00:46:10,300
much they’re opposed to these 

1505
00:46:10,300 --> 00:46:11,800
these adversary regimes, many 

1506
00:46:11,800 --> 00:46:13,633
of which again are really 

1507
00:46:13,633 --> 00:46:14,900
really authoritarian. 

1508
00:46:14,900 --> 00:46:16,733
despicable tyrannical regimes 

1509
00:46:16,733 --> 00:46:19,000
are also people who are most 

1510
00:46:19,000 --> 00:46:20,166
enthusiastic about selling US 

1511
00:46:20,166 --> 00:46:21,333
arms to other regimes. Let’s 

1512
00:46:21,333 --> 00:46:23,267
say in the in the Gulf, for 

1513
00:46:23,267 --> 00:46:25,433
instance, right that are 

1514
00:46:25,433 --> 00:46:27,033
virtually just as as as 

1515
00:46:27,033 --> 00:46:28,000
authoritarian and tyrannical 

1516
00:46:28,000 --> 00:46:28,899
right, so the real distinction 

1517
00:46:28,899 --> 00:46:32,366
is are they on our side or not? 

1518
00:46:32,366 --> 00:46:34,233
let me just jump in here and 

1519
00:46:34,233 --> 00:46:35,067
and say first of all I mean 

1520
00:46:35,067 --> 00:46:37,466
there have been. Instances in 

1521
00:46:37,466 --> 00:46:39,167
which Sanctions regimes are 

1522
00:46:39,167 --> 00:46:40,099
explicitly tied to containment 

1523
00:46:40,099 --> 00:46:41,467
right so, of course, 

1524
00:46:41,467 --> 00:46:42,999
historically, both Iraqi and 

1525
00:46:42,999 --> 00:46:44,632
original Clinton administration 

1526
00:46:44,632 --> 00:46:46,133
policy with respect to Iran, 

1527
00:46:46,133 --> 00:46:47,499
which also implicated Sanctions 

1528
00:46:47,499 --> 00:46:49,433
was dual containment. so they 

1529
00:46:49,433 --> 00:46:50,766
explicitly named it and I think 

1530
00:46:50,766 --> 00:46:52,433
that’s right and so when you 

1531
00:46:52,433 --> 00:46:53,966
think the goal is containment 

1532
00:46:53,966 --> 00:46:55,866
the two-year sunset on the 

1533
00:46:55,866 --> 00:46:56,566
sanctions provisions, for 

1534
00:46:56,566 --> 00:46:58,033
example, doesn’t help because 

1535
00:46:58,033 --> 00:46:59,333
you know after 2 years look, 

1536
00:46:59,333 --> 00:47:00,499
they’re still contained. can 

1537
00:47:00,499 --> 00:47:01,967
continue this indefinitely that 

1538
00:47:01,967 --> 00:47:03,132
strategy, but some of the other 

1539
00:47:03,132 --> 00:47:04,000
proposals that have been on the 

1540
00:47:04,000 --> 00:47:04,867
table, including by 

1541
00:47:04,867 --> 00:47:06,967
researchers. At Quincy are 

1542
00:47:06,967 --> 00:47:08,332
published and responsible state 

1543
00:47:08,332 --> 00:47:10,000
craft include. holding 

1544
00:47:10,000 --> 00:47:11,366
ourselves accountable along the 

1545
00:47:11,366 --> 00:47:11,966
lines that Peter was just 

1546
00:47:11,966 --> 00:47:13,366
pointing to for the human 

1547
00:47:13,366 --> 00:47:13,933
rights consequences of our 

1548
00:47:13,933 --> 00:47:15,434
actions quite apart from 

1549
00:47:15,434 --> 00:47:16,833
whatever logic we’re providing 

1550
00:47:16,833 --> 00:47:18,067
even if it is a logical 

1551
00:47:18,067 --> 00:47:19,699
containment for sanctions if 

1552
00:47:19,699 --> 00:47:21,966
there are enormously adverse 

1553
00:47:21,966 --> 00:47:23,600
direct civilian impacts, which 

1554
00:47:23,600 --> 00:47:25,200
we don’t even bother to assess 

1555
00:47:25,200 --> 00:47:25,900
at this point, so like you 

1556
00:47:25,900 --> 00:47:27,433
would have to build in an 

1557
00:47:27,433 --> 00:47:28,466
actual impact assessment as 

1558
00:47:28,466 --> 00:47:29,966
many have argued for civilian 

1559
00:47:29,966 --> 00:47:32,533
harm or if we have sanctions 

1560
00:47:32,533 --> 00:47:33,767
that are complete that remain 

1561
00:47:33,767 --> 00:47:35,534
in place irrespective of. 

1562
00:47:35,534 --> 00:47:36,899
There’s a global pandemic, we 

1563
00:47:36,899 --> 00:47:38,166
have sanctions. There’s a 

1564
00:47:38,166 --> 00:47:39,300
natural disaster. There’s we 

1565
00:47:39,300 --> 00:47:40,600
have sanctions. There’s no 

1566
00:47:40,600 --> 00:47:42,100
mechanism at all for 

1567
00:47:42,100 --> 00:47:43,133
suspending, let alone rolling 

1568
00:47:43,133 --> 00:47:44,500
back rolling back is I mean 

1569
00:47:44,500 --> 00:47:46,100
there’s a total absence of that 

1570
00:47:46,100 --> 00:47:47,467
mechanism, but there needs to 

1571
00:47:47,467 --> 00:47:48,967
be those basic characteristics 

1572
00:47:48,967 --> 00:47:51,600
for us to even credibly speak 

1573
00:47:51,600 --> 00:47:53,967
in our own name about the 

1574
00:47:53,967 --> 00:47:55,033
consequences. we’re imposing on 

1575
00:47:55,033 --> 00:47:55,600
those populations that we 

1576
00:47:55,600 --> 00:47:57,033
purport to care about the why 

1577
00:47:57,033 --> 00:47:58,500
are we containing this act? Why 

1578
00:47:58,500 --> 00:47:59,367
do we claim that this actor is 

1579
00:47:59,367 --> 00:48:00,866
a bad actor? Why is that 

1580
00:48:00,866 --> 00:48:02,033
actor’s role in the region? not 

1581
00:48:02,033 --> 00:48:03,133
in our interests? We describe 

1582
00:48:03,133 --> 00:48:04,900
all these things that. Defy 

1583
00:48:04,900 --> 00:48:06,000
containment also in the 

1584
00:48:06,000 --> 00:48:06,700
language of human rights right 

1585
00:48:06,700 --> 00:48:08,567
that we somehow are a positive 

1586
00:48:08,567 --> 00:48:09,899
actor in the region. We can’t 

1587
00:48:09,899 --> 00:48:11,399
possibly sustain any of these 

1588
00:48:11,399 --> 00:48:12,899
claims about our own actions 

1589
00:48:12,899 --> 00:48:13,900
while attaching them to these 

1590
00:48:13,900 --> 00:48:15,400
kinds of comprehensive embargo 

1591
00:48:15,400 --> 00:48:16,967
without in some way, altering 

1592
00:48:16,967 --> 00:48:18,566
the mechanisms that we’re using 

1593
00:48:18,566 --> 00:48:19,867
including the secondary 

1594
00:48:19,867 --> 00:48:21,032
Sanctions. There’s such a bad 

1595
00:48:21,032 --> 00:48:22,566
actor. Their containment is so 

1596
00:48:22,566 --> 00:48:23,632
critical to global security. 

1597
00:48:23,632 --> 00:48:25,000
The United States is providing 

1598
00:48:25,000 --> 00:48:26,500
a kind kind of global 

1599
00:48:26,500 --> 00:48:27,967
stabilizing regime. Why can’t 

1600
00:48:27,967 --> 00:48:29,166
we persuade our allies to 

1601
00:48:29,166 --> 00:48:30,167
support us in that case? Why do 

1602
00:48:30,167 --> 00:48:31,467
we have to coerce them into 

1603
00:48:31,467 --> 00:48:32,667
supporting policies? They 

1604
00:48:32,667 --> 00:48:33,367
obviously don’t view this as 

1605
00:48:33,367 --> 00:48:35,799
St. Policies right they don’t 

1606
00:48:35,799 --> 00:48:37,932
think this approached Iran is 

1607
00:48:37,932 --> 00:48:38,532
the right approach they 

1608
00:48:38,532 --> 00:48:39,966
consider engagement to be the 

1609
00:48:39,966 --> 00:48:42,000
more stabilizing more peace 

1610
00:48:42,000 --> 00:48:43,300
enhancing better approach to 

1611
00:48:43,300 --> 00:48:46,066
the Middle East and the Gulf 

1612
00:48:46,066 --> 00:48:47,566
actors or Israel that happened 

1613
00:48:47,566 --> 00:48:48,866
to endorse this maximum 

1614
00:48:48,866 --> 00:48:50,599
pressure style strategy are not 

1615
00:48:50,599 --> 00:48:52,000
the only actors either in the 

1616
00:48:52,000 --> 00:48:53,834
region or more generally 

1617
00:48:53,834 --> 00:48:54,399
amongst our allies whose 

1618
00:48:54,399 --> 00:48:56,800
interests ought to count in in 

1619
00:48:56,800 --> 00:48:57,966
determining this even if we 

1620
00:48:57,966 --> 00:48:59,400
accepted the notion that 

1621
00:48:59,400 --> 00:49:00,999
containing adversaries is a is 

1622
00:49:00,999 --> 00:49:02,000
a legitimate objective, which 

1623
00:49:02,000 --> 00:49:03,933
is, of course tied to American. 

1624
00:49:03,933 --> 00:49:05,700
Tied to other things we might 

1625
00:49:05,700 --> 00:49:09,466
wish to problem as really. 

1626
00:49:09,466 --> 00:49:11,500
contested accounts of how we 

1627
00:49:11,500 --> 00:49:13,066
should understand our own 

1628
00:49:13,066 --> 00:49:13,800
interests, but even setting 

1629
00:49:13,800 --> 00:49:16,067
that aside there are still deep 

1630
00:49:16,067 --> 00:49:17,433
problems with this particular 

1631
00:49:17,433 --> 00:49:19,567
strategy coercive strategy 

1632
00:49:19,567 --> 00:49:20,933
towards containment and and 

1633
00:49:20,933 --> 00:49:23,500
just to name you know one 

1634
00:49:23,500 --> 00:49:25,000
problem that we are here 

1635
00:49:25,000 --> 00:49:26,533
producing is entrenched that 

1636
00:49:26,533 --> 00:49:28,066
adversarial relationship in 

1637
00:49:28,066 --> 00:49:29,400
ways that invite other actors 

1638
00:49:29,400 --> 00:49:30,999
with which we also have global 

1639
00:49:30,999 --> 00:49:31,966
tensions to come in and pursue 

1640
00:49:31,966 --> 00:49:33,767
their own. Strategic interest 

1641
00:49:33,767 --> 00:49:34,833
in the region, and this is 

1642
00:49:34,833 --> 00:49:35,433
something that joshua’s 

1643
00:49:35,433 --> 00:49:37,733
pointing to China, Russia, many 

1644
00:49:37,733 --> 00:49:39,133
other actors are going to have 

1645
00:49:39,133 --> 00:49:41,299
a reason not only bilaterally 

1646
00:49:41,299 --> 00:49:42,733
to engage with Iran in ways 

1647
00:49:42,733 --> 00:49:45,167
that evade our containment 

1648
00:49:45,167 --> 00:49:45,967
strategies but actually to 

1649
00:49:45,967 --> 00:49:47,800
produce broader infrastructure 

1650
00:49:47,800 --> 00:49:49,599
that roads the American 

1651
00:49:49,599 --> 00:49:50,999
hegemony role in the financial 

1652
00:49:50,999 --> 00:49:52,933
system globally that enables 

1653
00:49:52,933 --> 00:49:53,366
these secondary Sanctions 

1654
00:49:53,366 --> 00:49:54,832
right. So now we have 

1655
00:49:54,832 --> 00:49:57,134
electronic currencies being 

1656
00:49:57,134 --> 00:49:58,367
proposed by major global 

1657
00:49:58,367 --> 00:50:00,266
adversaries and so on so even 

1658
00:50:00,266 --> 00:50:01,333
if we’re exclusively looking at 

1659
00:50:01,333 --> 00:50:02,900
this from the lens of. The 

1660
00:50:02,900 --> 00:50:04,433
United States pursuing a 

1661
00:50:04,433 --> 00:50:06,433
coherent set of strategic 

1662
00:50:06,433 --> 00:50:07,066
interest and you name those 

1663
00:50:07,066 --> 00:50:08,467
interests to be containment in 

1664
00:50:08,467 --> 00:50:10,700
the pursuit of short-term 

1665
00:50:10,700 --> 00:50:11,233
objectives with respective 

1666
00:50:11,233 --> 00:50:13,466
containment to basically small 

1667
00:50:13,466 --> 00:50:15,900
adversaries in regions that are 

1668
00:50:15,900 --> 00:50:18,566
you know. maybe central to some 

1669
00:50:18,566 --> 00:50:20,000
of our allies but secondary in 

1670
00:50:20,000 --> 00:50:20,767
many respects to the United 

1671
00:50:20,767 --> 00:50:22,466
States own geopolitical 

1672
00:50:22,466 --> 00:50:24,566
position We are also enabling a 

1673
00:50:24,566 --> 00:50:26,500
system globally in which many 

1674
00:50:26,500 --> 00:50:28,133
actors, including our own 

1675
00:50:28,133 --> 00:50:29,933
allies, are deeply incentivized 

1676
00:50:29,933 --> 00:50:31,266
to find ways to to basically 

1677
00:50:31,266 --> 00:50:34,166
disinfect. In our demonic role 

1678
00:50:34,166 --> 00:50:35,932
in the financial system and 

1679
00:50:35,932 --> 00:50:38,800
find ways to diversify control 

1680
00:50:38,800 --> 00:50:41,467
because they are being coerced 

1681
00:50:41,467 --> 00:50:42,266
themselves through secondary 

1682
00:50:42,266 --> 00:50:42,900
Sanctions in ways that 

1683
00:50:42,900 --> 00:50:45,433
undermine our own alliances. So 

1684
00:50:45,433 --> 00:50:46,800
again, there’s a very narrow 

1685
00:50:46,800 --> 00:50:48,333
way of understanding objectives 

1686
00:50:48,333 --> 00:50:49,733
the one that you framed and 

1687
00:50:49,733 --> 00:50:52,099
maybe you can say narrowly 

1688
00:50:52,099 --> 00:50:53,832
understood. Can we prolong our 

1689
00:50:53,832 --> 00:50:54,866
containment of Iran or 

1690
00:50:54,866 --> 00:50:56,600
Venezuela in this way? not if 

1691
00:50:56,600 --> 00:50:58,000
we’re standing by our own 

1692
00:50:58,000 --> 00:50:59,633
claims to care about human 

1693
00:50:59,633 --> 00:51:01,899
rights or humanitarian welfare? 

1694
00:51:01,899 --> 00:51:03,833
In the region, yeah, we have 

1695
00:51:03,833 --> 00:51:04,833
questions from the audience. 

1696
00:51:04,833 --> 00:51:07,566
George Lopez, Myanmar people 

1697
00:51:07,566 --> 00:51:10,000
who raises Russia so how would 

1698
00:51:10,000 --> 00:51:12,699
you address the situation in 

1699
00:51:12,699 --> 00:51:13,933
those countries? and would you 

1700
00:51:13,933 --> 00:51:15,466
make a distinction between 

1701
00:51:15,466 --> 00:51:16,599
Broad Based Economic Sanctions 

1702
00:51:16,599 --> 00:51:18,100
and target sanctions against 

1703
00:51:18,100 --> 00:51:20,666
human rights abusers and also 

1704
00:51:20,666 --> 00:51:22,067
we don’t have to necessarily 

1705
00:51:22,067 --> 00:51:23,400
think in terms of sanctions. I 

1706
00:51:23,400 --> 00:51:24,533
mean, this is something that 

1707
00:51:24,533 --> 00:51:25,400
doesn’t work, we should think 

1708
00:51:25,400 --> 00:51:26,000
about other things. but what 

1709
00:51:26,000 --> 00:51:27,033
would that be and what would be 

1710
00:51:27,033 --> 00:51:29,100
the principles that you think 

1711
00:51:29,100 --> 00:51:29,833
should guide us in 

1712
00:51:29,833 --> 00:51:31,733
understanding What? Is the way 

1713
00:51:31,733 --> 00:51:32,966
that is both effective 

1714
00:51:32,966 --> 00:51:34,999
strategic but also morally 

1715
00:51:34,999 --> 00:51:36,433
defensible in terms of not 

1716
00:51:36,433 --> 00:51:37,500
making the situation worse at a 

1717
00:51:37,500 --> 00:51:39,000
minimum. Yeah and I’ll be brief 

1718
00:51:39,000 --> 00:51:40,499
to give I mean I don’t want to 

1719
00:51:40,499 --> 00:51:41,299
go on too long, but I’ve 

1720
00:51:41,299 --> 00:51:43,299
already named I mean Impact 

1721
00:51:43,299 --> 00:51:43,966
assessments to begin with 

1722
00:51:43,966 --> 00:51:44,933
right, you’re not going to 

1723
00:51:44,933 --> 00:51:46,066
impose any form of sanctions in 

1724
00:51:46,066 --> 00:51:47,566
Myanmar that’s going to improve 

1725
00:51:47,566 --> 00:51:48,767
the situation if you’re not 

1726
00:51:48,767 --> 00:51:50,866
actively and in advance seeking 

1727
00:51:50,866 --> 00:51:52,467
to understand the potential 

1728
00:51:52,467 --> 00:51:53,033
humanitarian costs associated 

1729
00:51:53,033 --> 00:51:55,333
with your actions, you can’t 

1730
00:51:55,333 --> 00:51:56,966
say I reject a human rights 

1731
00:51:56,966 --> 00:51:57,966
abusing situation and then 

1732
00:51:57,966 --> 00:51:59,267
adopt a strategy that enhances 

1733
00:51:59,267 --> 00:52:01,067
human rights abuses. Right so 

1734
00:52:01,067 --> 00:52:02,667
if that’s your motivation and 

1735
00:52:02,667 --> 00:52:04,833
that’s the moral dilemma that 

1736
00:52:04,833 --> 00:52:05,966
you’re grappling with then you 

1737
00:52:05,966 --> 00:52:07,332
have to attach yourself at a 

1738
00:52:07,332 --> 00:52:08,599
minimum to those civilian 

1739
00:52:08,599 --> 00:52:09,500
Impact assessments, which we 

1740
00:52:09,500 --> 00:52:10,366
don’t do credibly at this time 

1741
00:52:10,366 --> 00:52:12,433
at all and an ongoing 

1742
00:52:12,433 --> 00:52:13,800
assessment of the effects and 

1743
00:52:13,800 --> 00:52:15,333
basically you would tailor it 

1744
00:52:15,333 --> 00:52:16,600
enormously more narrowly than 

1745
00:52:16,600 --> 00:52:17,266
anything we’ve been discussing 

1746
00:52:17,266 --> 00:52:18,633
today. Weapons embargo, for 

1747
00:52:18,633 --> 00:52:20,400
example, make tons of sense for 

1748
00:52:20,400 --> 00:52:21,299
all the reasons that Peter’s 

1749
00:52:21,299 --> 00:52:24,466
already alluded to and more you 

1750
00:52:24,466 --> 00:52:25,966
you can desist from selling 

1751
00:52:25,966 --> 00:52:26,666
weapons to actors that you 

1752
00:52:26,666 --> 00:52:28,199
believe are not only directly 

1753
00:52:28,199 --> 00:52:30,400
responsible in Myanmar but. 

1754
00:52:30,400 --> 00:52:32,166
Supporting the geopolitical 

1755
00:52:32,166 --> 00:52:33,200
context in Southeast Asia, 

1756
00:52:33,200 --> 00:52:35,466
that’s enabling that military 

1757
00:52:35,466 --> 00:52:36,166
hunter to act in the way that 

1758
00:52:36,166 --> 00:52:38,467
it is you can target 

1759
00:52:38,467 --> 00:52:39,866
individuals within the regime 

1760
00:52:39,866 --> 00:52:41,333
with financial consequences, 

1761
00:52:41,333 --> 00:52:42,466
but here too, there’s an 

1762
00:52:42,466 --> 00:52:43,533
enormous overuse of this 

1763
00:52:43,533 --> 00:52:46,000
instrument and a listing 

1764
00:52:46,000 --> 00:52:47,432
mechanism for entities and 

1765
00:52:47,432 --> 00:52:48,999
individuals that far exceeds 

1766
00:52:48,999 --> 00:52:51,700
any narrowly goal of pursuing a 

1767
00:52:51,700 --> 00:52:52,799
specific human rights abuser, 

1768
00:52:52,799 --> 00:52:54,534
and so one has to be careful in 

1769
00:52:54,534 --> 00:52:56,033
endorsing tools that then be 

1770
00:52:56,033 --> 00:52:57,500
proliferate in ways that are 

1771
00:52:57,500 --> 00:53:00,033
out of control and that fre. We 

1772
00:53:00,033 --> 00:53:01,367
don’t have any meaningful 

1773
00:53:01,367 --> 00:53:02,534
oversight, but you would want 

1774
00:53:02,534 --> 00:53:03,633
to choose the narrowest 

1775
00:53:03,633 --> 00:53:05,533
possible. Go you know Approach 

1776
00:53:05,533 --> 00:53:07,367
if you’re thinking of using 

1777
00:53:07,367 --> 00:53:08,000
these courses and instruments 

1778
00:53:08,000 --> 00:53:09,634
and then we have to 

1779
00:53:09,634 --> 00:53:10,400
dramatically expand our toolkit 

1780
00:53:10,400 --> 00:53:11,900
and again Quincy has done a 

1781
00:53:11,900 --> 00:53:13,267
great job of talking about you 

1782
00:53:13,267 --> 00:53:14,433
know reinvigorated what the 

1783
00:53:14,433 --> 00:53:15,966
American foreign policy toolkit 

1784
00:53:15,966 --> 00:53:17,433
looks like so that we have a 

1785
00:53:17,433 --> 00:53:18,600
broader array of tools 

1786
00:53:18,600 --> 00:53:20,366
available that aren’t on the 

1787
00:53:20,366 --> 00:53:22,033
course of register. Hey, Josh. 

1788
00:53:22,033 --> 00:53:24,000
Do you guys want to jump in on 

1789
00:53:24,000 --> 00:53:26,000
this as well? Yeah, I just I 

1790
00:53:26,000 --> 00:53:28,399
mean II think. you know 

1791
00:53:28,399 --> 00:53:29,833
questions like Myanmar are 

1792
00:53:29,833 --> 00:53:30,367
really really difficult. 

1793
00:53:30,367 --> 00:53:31,600
Obviously it’s it’s you know 

1794
00:53:31,600 --> 00:53:33,933
you’ve got a hideous regime and 

1795
00:53:33,933 --> 00:53:35,266
II do think that you know, 

1796
00:53:35,266 --> 00:53:36,767
maybe they’re maybe again if 

1797
00:53:36,767 --> 00:53:38,133
one if one had builds in the 

1798
00:53:38,133 --> 00:53:39,433
same kind of safeguards, there 

1799
00:53:39,433 --> 00:53:40,867
are certain very very targeted 

1800
00:53:40,867 --> 00:53:42,133
sanctions against particular 

1801
00:53:42,133 --> 00:53:43,367
individual military leaders 

1802
00:53:43,367 --> 00:53:45,500
that you know are they going to 

1803
00:53:45,500 --> 00:53:46,033
bring the are they going to are 

1804
00:53:46,033 --> 00:53:47,733
they going to are they going to 

1805
00:53:47,733 --> 00:53:50,033
bring democracy to Myanmar 

1806
00:53:50,033 --> 00:53:51,700
unlikely, but maybe they have 

1807
00:53:51,700 --> 00:53:53,000
some small deterrent. Maybe 

1808
00:53:53,000 --> 00:53:53,966
they just in some ways that you 

1809
00:53:53,966 --> 00:53:55,633
know you’ve got maybe maybe 

1810
00:53:55,633 --> 00:53:56,566
they provide some psychological 

1811
00:53:56,566 --> 00:53:58,667
benefit. The people who are 

1812
00:53:58,667 --> 00:53:59,833
struggling under that horrific 

1813
00:53:59,833 --> 00:54:01,299
regime, but I think that part 

1814
00:54:01,299 --> 00:54:03,566
of the problem is that you know 

1815
00:54:03,566 --> 00:54:05,400
we we don’t first think about 

1816
00:54:05,400 --> 00:54:07,033
about the more basic principle, 

1817
00:54:07,033 --> 00:54:07,833
which is you know, kind of 

1818
00:54:07,833 --> 00:54:09,366
hypocrite, which is first do no 

1819
00:54:09,366 --> 00:54:10,900
harm right when we often have 

1820
00:54:10,900 --> 00:54:12,266
these conversations is about 

1821
00:54:12,266 --> 00:54:13,900
the real, you know as if they 

1822
00:54:13,900 --> 00:54:16,367
are not so many regimes around 

1823
00:54:16,367 --> 00:54:18,033
the world where the United 

1824
00:54:18,033 --> 00:54:19,399
States does have more influence 

1825
00:54:19,399 --> 00:54:21,333
because we are where we have 

1826
00:54:21,333 --> 00:54:22,932
troops, we have we have we’re 

1827
00:54:22,932 --> 00:54:24,500
selling arms. We’re we’re 

1828
00:54:24,500 --> 00:54:25,567
providing money. We have we’re 

1829
00:54:25,567 --> 00:54:27,566
training the military. All of 

1830
00:54:27,566 --> 00:54:29,900
these places right and and and 

1831
00:54:29,900 --> 00:54:31,233
those those you know whether 

1832
00:54:31,233 --> 00:54:32,999
it’s Ethiopia or Uganda, I mean 

1833
00:54:32,999 --> 00:54:35,599
across the globe right those 

1834
00:54:35,599 --> 00:54:36,433
conversations, those tend to 

1835
00:54:36,433 --> 00:54:38,899
get less attention even though 

1836
00:54:38,899 --> 00:54:40,433
the United States has more 

1837
00:54:40,433 --> 00:54:42,933
influence II came across this 

1838
00:54:42,933 --> 00:54:45,000
this funny little debate just 

1839
00:54:45,000 --> 00:54:47,066
on YouTube a few years ago, You 

1840
00:54:47,066 --> 00:54:48,666
know that that know that that a 

1841
00:54:48,666 --> 00:54:51,034
young chomsky had with a much 

1842
00:54:51,034 --> 00:54:52,999
younger David from in Toronto 

1843
00:54:52,999 --> 00:54:54,266
just out of the and and 

1844
00:54:54,266 --> 00:54:57,032
basically you know that’s. Him 

1845
00:54:57,032 --> 00:54:58,300
and said, listen, you know it 

1846
00:54:58,300 --> 00:54:59,533
was during the Cold war, he 

1847
00:54:59,533 --> 00:55:02,567
said. Listen, you know so and 

1848
00:55:02,567 --> 00:55:04,600
so of the Soviet is not focused 

1849
00:55:04,600 --> 00:55:06,100
on human rights abuses in the 

1850
00:55:06,100 --> 00:55:07,199
United States. He’s focused on 

1851
00:55:07,199 --> 00:55:08,532
human rights abuses in the 

1852
00:55:08,532 --> 00:55:09,733
Soviet union and what it’s 

1853
00:55:09,733 --> 00:55:10,699
doing because that’s what he 

1854
00:55:10,699 --> 00:55:12,600
has moral responsibility and 

1855
00:55:12,600 --> 00:55:13,967
and and and and so that should 

1856
00:55:13,967 --> 00:55:15,667
be our first principle too. You 

1857
00:55:15,667 --> 00:55:16,799
know not that we shouldn’t care 

1858
00:55:16,799 --> 00:55:17,866
about Myanmar. Of course we can 

1859
00:55:17,866 --> 00:55:19,332
go to or you know what Assad is 

1860
00:55:19,332 --> 00:55:20,500
doing or any of these we we 

1861
00:55:20,500 --> 00:55:21,900
should, but but the but the 

1862
00:55:21,900 --> 00:55:23,700
low-hanging fruit is the stuff 

1863
00:55:23,700 --> 00:55:25,267
that we’re doing ourselves 

1864
00:55:25,267 --> 00:55:27,967
right. And yet so often that 

1865
00:55:27,967 --> 00:55:30,000
actually ends up really out of 

1866
00:55:30,000 --> 00:55:31,900
the spotlight in these in these 

1867
00:55:31,900 --> 00:55:34,000
moralistic conversations and II 

1868
00:55:34,000 --> 00:55:35,966
like to reiterate that and in a 

1869
00:55:35,966 --> 00:55:38,266
sense we’ve we’ve inflated the 

1870
00:55:38,266 --> 00:55:39,900
United States has inflated. 

1871
00:55:39,900 --> 00:55:42,333
It’s own sense of what it can 

1872
00:55:42,333 --> 00:55:43,732
do and its responsibility 

1873
00:55:43,732 --> 00:55:45,166
around the world to such an 

1874
00:55:45,166 --> 00:55:46,600
extent that we’ve made a 

1875
00:55:46,600 --> 00:55:47,932
terrible mess of things by 

1876
00:55:47,932 --> 00:55:50,533
overturning regimes in Iraq 

1877
00:55:50,533 --> 00:55:52,999
trying trying to in Syria, 

1878
00:55:52,999 --> 00:55:54,532
Libya and you can just go right 

1879
00:55:54,532 --> 00:55:55,933
across all of our regime change 

1880
00:55:55,933 --> 00:55:57,233
efforts and we’ve made things 

1881
00:55:57,233 --> 00:56:01,500
so much worse by. This over 

1882
00:56:01,500 --> 00:56:04,199
weaning sense of our moral 

1883
00:56:04,199 --> 00:56:05,333
responsibility and what we can 

1884
00:56:05,333 --> 00:56:07,532
actually do and I think it’s so 

1885
00:56:07,532 --> 00:56:08,933
important for us to to to 

1886
00:56:08,933 --> 00:56:11,966
first. take it down. It’s just 

1887
00:56:11,966 --> 00:56:13,633
a number of levels to realize 

1888
00:56:13,633 --> 00:56:15,632
that we really don’t have the 

1889
00:56:15,632 --> 00:56:18,599
tools and the ability to make 

1890
00:56:18,599 --> 00:56:20,867
people democratic and to make 

1891
00:56:20,867 --> 00:56:22,299
countries democratic that 

1892
00:56:22,299 --> 00:56:23,600
aren’t democratic people have 

1893
00:56:23,600 --> 00:56:25,067
to stumble towards that there 

1894
00:56:25,067 --> 00:56:26,567
are certain things we can do I 

1895
00:56:26,567 --> 00:56:27,899
suppose, but they’re very 

1896
00:56:27,899 --> 00:56:28,866
limited and that’s what we’re 

1897
00:56:28,866 --> 00:56:30,600
finding a place like Syria or 

1898
00:56:30,600 --> 00:56:33,233
Iraq and and and and. Gets us 

1899
00:56:33,233 --> 00:56:34,332
back to the hypocritical oath 

1900
00:56:34,332 --> 00:56:35,533
It’s just we have to be much 

1901
00:56:35,533 --> 00:56:38,000
more humble about what we can 

1902
00:56:38,000 --> 00:56:40,434
actually do and much more 

1903
00:56:40,434 --> 00:56:41,099
realistic about what our tools 

1904
00:56:41,099 --> 00:56:43,532
really are because because 

1905
00:56:43,532 --> 00:56:45,233
quite cynically people who have 

1906
00:56:45,233 --> 00:56:47,500
other ambitions have played to 

1907
00:56:47,500 --> 00:56:50,132
this humanistic instinct by 

1908
00:56:50,132 --> 00:56:53,066
giving us all this Yahoo stuff 

1909
00:56:53,066 --> 00:56:54,600
about human rights and we’re 

1910
00:56:54,600 --> 00:56:55,667
going to be enacting human 

1911
00:56:55,667 --> 00:56:57,000
rights through sanctions, which 

1912
00:56:57,000 --> 00:56:58,533
is completely false and we just 

1913
00:56:58,533 --> 00:57:01,133
fall for it every damn time and 

1914
00:57:01,133 --> 00:57:04,534
it’s. Hasn’t helped us and it 

1915
00:57:04,534 --> 00:57:06,266
hasn’t helped other people. 

1916
00:57:06,266 --> 00:57:07,300
maybe I could just come in with 

1917
00:57:07,300 --> 00:57:08,667
one last thought, which is it’s 

1918
00:57:08,667 --> 00:57:11,100
going to be a transition in any 

1919
00:57:11,100 --> 00:57:13,267
of these places. Syria Myanmar 

1920
00:57:13,267 --> 00:57:14,599
etcetera, It’s probably going 

1921
00:57:14,599 --> 00:57:15,799
to have to be one that’s 

1922
00:57:15,799 --> 00:57:17,633
negotiated in which the doctors 

1923
00:57:17,633 --> 00:57:18,834
are induced in one way or 

1924
00:57:18,834 --> 00:57:20,000
another to step down and none 

1925
00:57:20,000 --> 00:57:21,233
of that’s going to be 

1926
00:57:21,233 --> 00:57:22,433
accomplished through the means 

1927
00:57:22,433 --> 00:57:23,834
that we’re discussing here so 

1928
00:57:23,834 --> 00:57:24,567
that really points again if we 

1929
00:57:24,567 --> 00:57:26,366
want to improve these 

1930
00:57:26,366 --> 00:57:27,233
situations, we have to improve 

1931
00:57:27,233 --> 00:57:28,334
the diplomatic engagement tools 

1932
00:57:28,334 --> 00:57:29,733
that we have available to us to 

1933
00:57:29,733 --> 00:57:31,133
work with our allies in those 

1934
00:57:31,133 --> 00:57:32,166
regions that are connected to 

1935
00:57:32,166 --> 00:57:34,433
these regimes and alter their 

1936
00:57:34,433 --> 00:57:36,000
own incentives in a variety of 

1937
00:57:36,000 --> 00:57:36,867
ways that have to do with 

1938
00:57:36,867 --> 00:57:39,367
inducement. Thank you so much 

1939
00:57:39,367 --> 00:57:40,366
as I think that those are 

1940
00:57:40,366 --> 00:57:42,400
excellent parting words that I 

1941
00:57:42,400 --> 00:57:44,533
think, but it also points to is 

1942
00:57:44,533 --> 00:57:47,299
what’s Peter mentioned earlier 

1943
00:57:47,299 --> 00:57:48,400
on, we really do have to 

1944
00:57:48,400 --> 00:57:51,033
understand these sanctions as 

1945
00:57:51,033 --> 00:57:54,433
part of the forever wars, I 

1946
00:57:54,433 --> 00:57:55,333
think Josh you mentioned that 

1947
00:57:55,333 --> 00:57:56,433
it would be good to make sure 

1948
00:57:56,433 --> 00:57:58,667
that sanctions bills had 2 

1949
00:57:58,667 --> 00:57:59,966
years sunsets well they 

1950
00:57:59,966 --> 00:58:01,467
actually used to many of these 

1951
00:58:01,467 --> 00:58:04,432
sanctions bills up until 2001 

1952
00:58:04,432 --> 00:58:06,532
2002 used to have sunset they 

1953
00:58:06,532 --> 00:58:08,033
used to be 2 years or 5 years 

1954
00:58:08,033 --> 00:58:09,800
and Congress had to actively 

1955
00:58:09,800 --> 00:58:12,700
reenact them. And it didn’t 

1956
00:58:12,700 --> 00:58:14,000
necessarily mean that he had a 

1957
00:58:14,000 --> 00:58:16,600
type of it. humanitarian impact 

1958
00:58:16,600 --> 00:58:18,000
assessment That’s actually he’s 

1959
00:58:18,000 --> 00:58:19,100
calling for, but nevertheless 

1960
00:58:19,100 --> 00:58:20,534
meant that there was another 

1961
00:58:20,534 --> 00:58:21,966
conversation every five or so 

1962
00:58:21,966 --> 00:58:23,433
years about whether this still 

1963
00:58:23,433 --> 00:58:25,099
made sense or not those are now 

1964
00:58:25,099 --> 00:58:27,067
completely gone and the 

1965
00:58:27,067 --> 00:58:28,667
sanctions are forever because 

1966
00:58:28,667 --> 00:58:30,766
we do not live Sanctions 

1967
00:58:30,766 --> 00:58:31,667
through Congress. We have very 

1968
00:58:31,667 --> 00:58:32,900
few examples of that ever 

1969
00:58:32,900 --> 00:58:34,966
happening so once they’re 

1970
00:58:34,966 --> 00:58:36,433
enacted in Congress with nos, 

1971
00:58:36,433 --> 00:58:37,233
they’re essentially there to 

1972
00:58:37,233 --> 00:58:38,600
stay unless we can 

1973
00:58:38,600 --> 00:58:39,399
fundamentally change the 

1974
00:58:39,399 --> 00:58:41,133
politics of this. This 

1975
00:58:41,133 --> 00:58:42,433
conversation did us a great 

1976
00:58:42,433 --> 00:58:44,766
service and really distilling 

1977
00:58:44,766 --> 00:58:46,000
some of the key elements and 

1978
00:58:46,000 --> 00:58:47,433
variables of what that 

1979
00:58:47,433 --> 00:58:48,500
conversation needs to be 

1980
00:58:48,500 --> 00:58:50,000
whether it is to reassess how 

1981
00:58:50,000 --> 00:58:51,466
the Soviet union came out 

1982
00:58:51,466 --> 00:58:53,933
whether it is to really lift up 

1983
00:58:53,933 --> 00:58:54,733
the principle that should be 

1984
00:58:54,733 --> 00:58:55,767
guiding us if we truly claim 

1985
00:58:55,767 --> 00:58:56,833
that we care about human 

1986
00:58:56,833 --> 00:58:59,567
rights, but also I think to 

1987
00:58:59,567 --> 00:59:01,167
understand that sanctions 

1988
00:59:01,167 --> 00:59:03,466
particularly Broad Sanctions 

1989
00:59:03,466 --> 00:59:04,866
tend to be a slippery slope 

1990
00:59:04,866 --> 00:59:06,000
towards the military 

1991
00:59:06,000 --> 00:59:07,633
confrontation. So if we want to 

1992
00:59:07,633 --> 00:59:08,533
pursue this path precisely 

1993
00:59:08,533 --> 00:59:10,499
because we don’t want more. We 

1994
00:59:10,499 --> 00:59:12,000
shouldn’t be pursuing this path 

1995
00:59:12,000 --> 00:59:13,200
at all because it tends to lead 

1996
00:59:13,200 --> 00:59:14,733
to work, according to the data 

1997
00:59:14,733 --> 00:59:16,499
has been collected. I want to 

1998
00:59:16,499 --> 00:59:17,932
thank you all so much. I want 

1999
00:59:17,932 --> 00:59:18,432
to apologize to the audience. 

2000
00:59:18,432 --> 00:59:19,833
They were great questions. I 

2001
00:59:19,833 --> 00:59:20,899
try to get into it as many of 

2002
00:59:20,899 --> 00:59:23,633
them as I could excellent 

2003
00:59:23,633 --> 00:59:25,900
conversation. Thank you so much 

2004
00:59:25,900 --> 00:59:27,833
to Josh to us to Peter for 

2005
00:59:27,833 --> 00:59:29,066
participating before I let 

2006
00:59:29,066 --> 00:59:31,266
everyone go as always I do want 

2007
00:59:31,266 --> 00:59:34,299
to plug our next event, which 

2008
00:59:34,299 --> 00:59:35,567
will be this Friday on April 

2009
00:59:35,567 --> 00:59:36,766
30th, where we host a 

2010
00:59:36,766 --> 00:59:37,899
conversation on how Biden 

2011
00:59:37,899 --> 00:59:39,967
reached the decision. Troops 

2012
00:59:39,967 --> 00:59:41,600
from Afghanistan and whether he 

2013
00:59:41,600 --> 00:59:43,966
will be able to keep his word 

2014
00:59:43,966 --> 00:59:45,566
ambassador Richard Olsen, Linda 

2015
00:59:45,566 --> 00:59:47,966
Brown and Dr Jonathan Shor. 

2016
00:59:47,966 --> 00:59:49,700
will speak on that panel so if 

2017
00:59:49,700 --> 00:59:51,933
you haven’t already please sign 

2018
00:59:51,933 --> 00:59:54,333
up to the QI mailing list at 

2019
00:59:54,333 --> 00:59:56,999
WWW, Quincy Inns.org and you’ll 

2020
00:59:56,999 --> 00:59:58,366
receive notifications for all 

2021
00:59:58,366 --> 00:59:59,900
our future panels as well as 

2022
00:59:59,900 --> 01:00:00,900
our writings and you’ll also 

2023
01:00:00,900 --> 01:00:02,366
have a chance of following 

2024
01:00:02,366 --> 01:00:04,867
Peter and and Josh and and ask 

2025
01:00:04,867 --> 01:00:06,432
his work on our website as 

2026
01:00:06,432 --> 01:00:07,533
well. So thank you so much for 

2027
01:00:07,533 --> 01:00:09,366
today. It was a great pleasure. 

2028
01:00:09,366 --> 01:00:10,900
Having you and look forward to 

2029
01:00:10,900 --> 01:00:11,932
seeing you on Friday, thank